College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.
College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.
Front Public Health. 2024 Oct 18;12:1424657. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1424657. eCollection 2024.
BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain one of the most deadly infectious diseases in the world, and non-optimal temperature is a risk factor for LRIs. The aim of this study was to analyze the global burden of LRI attribute to non-optimal temperature and its trends from 1990 to 2019, and to project long-term trends. METHODS: Excerpts from the release of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which analyses the burden of lower respiratory infections due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990 to 2019 using data on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs); explores differences across regions, populations and seasons, and projects future trends in burden. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, there is a significant downward trend in the global burden of deaths and DALYs, but it remains high in infants and young children, the older adult, African countries and LOW SDI regions. Differences in geographical risk factors and economic levels lead to heterogeneous disease burdens across regions. In 2019, low SDI regions will have the highest burden, but high SDI regions will have the highest number of deaths. In addition, increasing SDI values were associated with decreasing trends in age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years. BAPC model projections suggest a downward trend in the future burden of death and DALYs from the disease, but the improvement in the burden of death for women was not significant. CONCLUSION: Our study comprehensively elucidates the distribution and dynamic trends in the burden of lower respiratory tract infections due to non-optimal temperatures from 1990 to 2019 along multiple dimensions. The burden of deaths and DALYs showed an overall decreasing trend, but the improvement was uneven in different regions. In addition, the results suggest that efforts should be made to reduce lower respiratory health losses in infants, young children, and older adult populations. Effective public health policies and interventions to reduce the burden of lower respiratory tract infections should be sustained globally.
背景：下呼吸道感染（LRIs）仍然是世界上最致命的传染病之一，而温度不适宜是 LRI 的一个风险因素。本研究旨在分析 1990 年至 2019 年非最佳温度导致的 LRI 全球负担及其趋势，并预测长期趋势。
方法：本研究摘录了 2019 年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的报告，该报告使用死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）的数据，分析了 1990 年至 2019 年非最佳温度导致的下呼吸道感染的负担；探讨了不同地区、人群和季节的差异，并预测了未来的负担趋势。
结果：1990 年至 2019 年，全球死亡率和 DALYs 的负担呈显著下降趋势，但在婴儿和幼儿、老年人口、非洲国家和低社会发展指数（SDI）地区仍然很高。地理风险因素和经济水平的差异导致了不同地区疾病负担的异质性。2019 年，低 SDI 地区的负担将最高，但高 SDI 地区的死亡人数将最多。此外，SDI 值的增加与年龄标准化死亡率和残疾调整生命年的下降趋势相关。BAPC 模型预测表明，未来该疾病的死亡和 DALYs 负担呈下降趋势，但女性死亡负担的改善并不显著。
结论：本研究全面阐明了 1990 年至 2019 年非最佳温度导致的下呼吸道感染负担在多个维度上的分布和动态趋势。死亡率和 DALYs 的负担呈总体下降趋势，但不同地区的改善情况不均。此外，研究结果表明，应努力减少婴儿、幼儿和老年人口的下呼吸道健康损失。全球应继续采取有效的公共卫生政策和干预措施，以减轻下呼吸道感染的负担。
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