Gebre Girma Gezimu, Amekawa Yuichiro, Fikadu Asmiro Abeje, Rahut Dil Bahadur
Faculty of Environment, Gender and Development Studies, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia.
The Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto 603-8577, Japan.
Clim Risk Manag. 2023;40:100495. doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100495.
Climate change threatens the sustainability of food production among farmers in Kenya who depend on rain-fed agriculture. To minimize the negative impacts of climate change, farmers have sought to adopt different adaptation strategies. This study investigates factors influencing farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies and associated effects on their food security in Kenya using data collected from 540 farmers from six counties. A multivariate probit, censored least absolute deviation (CLAD), and propensity score matching (PSM) models were employed to identify the determinants in the farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies, the number of adaptation strategies adopted, and the effect of climate change adaptation strategies on their food security, respectively. Results show that planting drought-tolerant crop varieties (55%), growing diversified crops (34%), growing early maturing crops (22%), and diversifying the sources of household income (18%) were the four major adaptation strategies used by the farmers in the study area. Younger farmers and those with higher education levels are more likely to use these climate change adaptation practices. The number of adaptation strategies used was positively associated with male farmers, education level, family size, land size, farm income, extension contact, training, and information access. The farmers who adopt one adaptation strategy have higher food security status (approximately 7-11%) than those who do not. If they adopt two adaptation strategies, their food security status increases by approximately 11-14%; if they adopt three adaptation strategies, their food security status increases by nearly 12-15%; and if they adopt four adaptation practices, their food security status increases by about 14-18%, compared to those who do not adopt any strategy. Thus, the farmers' climate change adaptation practices have positive food security effects in Kenya according to the number of adaptation strategies adopted.
气候变化威胁着肯尼亚依赖雨养农业的农民的粮食生产可持续性。为了尽量减少气候变化的负面影响，农民们寻求采用不同的适应策略。本研究利用从六个县的540名农民收集的数据，调查了影响肯尼亚农民选择气候变化适应策略的因素及其对粮食安全的相关影响。分别采用多元概率单位模型、截尾最小绝对偏差（CLAD）模型和倾向得分匹配（PSM）模型，来确定农民选择气候变化适应策略的决定因素、所采用的适应策略数量，以及气候变化适应策略对其粮食安全的影响。结果表明，种植耐旱作物品种（55%）、种植多样化作物（34%）、种植早熟作物（22%）和使家庭收入来源多样化（18%）是研究区域农民采用的四种主要适应策略。较年轻的农民和受教育程度较高的农民更有可能采用这些气候变化适应措施。所采用的适应策略数量与男性农民、教育水平、家庭规模、土地面积、农场收入、推广联系、培训和信息获取呈正相关。采用一种适应策略的农民比不采用的农民粮食安全状况更高（约7 - 11%）。与不采用任何策略的农民相比，如果他们采用两种适应策略，其粮食安全状况提高约11 - 14%；如果采用三种适应策略，其粮食安全状况提高近12 - 15%；如果采用四种适应措施，其粮食安全状况提高约14 - 18%。因此，根据采用的适应策略数量，肯尼亚农民的气候变化适应措施对粮食安全有积极影响。
