Zhang Yushuo, Liu Boyu, Shi Baoguo, Bi Xu, Mao Yuting, Sui Renjing
School of Culture Tourism and Journalism Arts (Humanities Education Center), Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan, 030006, China.
College of Geological and Surveying Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technoloy, Taiyuan, 030021, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 25;15(1):10216. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-94352-z.
Understanding the driving mechanisms behind ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs and synergies is crucial for sustainable ecosystem management. This study integrates the Social-Ecological System Framework (SESF) with path analysis to explore the relationships among crop production (CP), water retention (WR), and soil conservation (SC) in Shanxi Province, China. We identified six key driving factors-annual mean temperature (Tem), total annual precipitation (Pre), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), per capita GDP (GDP), agricultural, forestry, and water fiscal expenditure (Exp), and urban and rural per capita disposable income (Inc)-to analyze their direct and indirect influences on ES interactions over the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Results show that CP and WR exhibit a persistent trade-off, while CP and SC maintain a synergistic relationship. WR and SC display a trade-off in static time points but shift towards synergy in long-term changes. Path analysis confirms that natural factors (Tem, Pre, and NPP) dominate short-term ES dynamics, whereas socio-economic variables (GDP, Exp, and Inc) play a greater role in long-term ES changes. Mediation analysis reveals that NPP partially mediates climate effects on ESs, while Inc mediates the influence of GDP on ESs. However, Exp does not significantly affect ESs through Inc, likely due to policy implementation delays and regional economic priorities. Findings suggest that spatially targeted policies should be implemented to optimize ES relationships. Long-term ES governance should integrate ecological restoration strategies with socio-economic incentives to enhance ES sustainability.
了解生态系统服务（ES）权衡与协同背后的驱动机制对于可持续生态系统管理至关重要。本研究将社会-生态系统框架（SESF）与路径分析相结合，以探讨中国山西省作物生产（CP）、保水（WR）和土壤保持（SC）之间的关系。我们确定了六个关键驱动因素——年平均温度（Tem）、年总降水量（Pre）、净初级生产力（NPP）、人均国内生产总值（GDP）、农业、林业和水利财政支出（Exp）以及城乡人均可支配收入（Inc）——来分析它们在2000年、2010年和2020年对生态系统服务相互作用的直接和间接影响。结果表明，作物生产和保水呈现持续的权衡关系，而作物生产和土壤保持保持协同关系。保水和土壤保持在静态时间点呈现权衡关系，但在长期变化中转向协同关系。路径分析证实，自然因素（温度、降水和净初级生产力）主导短期生态系统服务动态，而社会经济变量（国内生产总值、支出和收入）在长期生态系统服务变化中发挥更大作用。中介分析表明，净初级生产力部分介导了气候对生态系统服务的影响，而收入介导了国内生产总值对生态系统服务的影响。然而，支出并未通过收入对生态系统服务产生显著影响，这可能是由于政策实施延迟和区域经济优先事项所致。研究结果表明，应实施空间针对性政策以优化生态系统服务关系。长期的生态系统服务治理应将生态恢复策略与社会经济激励措施相结合，以提高生态系统服务的可持续性。
