Geng Yu, Liu Ya, Li Peng, Sun Jingyu, Jiang Yiru, Pan Zhuo, Li Yue-Zhong, Zhang Zheng
State Key Laboratory of Microbial Technology, Institute of Microbial Technology, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, China.
Qilu Hospital (Qingdao), Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Qingdao 266035, China.
Sci Adv. 2025 Mar 28;11(13):eads4355. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.ads4355. Epub 2025 Mar 26.
Climate change is profoundly affecting human health. Human pathogenic bacteria (HPB) infections mediated by the environment are considered a substantial cause of global health losses. However, the biogeography of HPB and their response to climate change remain largely unknown. Here, we constructed and analyzed a global atlas of potential HPB using 1,066,584 samples worldwide. HPB are widely present in the global environment, and their distribution follows a latitudinal diversity gradient. Climate and anthropogenic factors are identified as major drivers of the global distribution of HPB. Our predictions indicated that by the end of this century, the richness, abundance, and invasion risk of HPB will increase globally, with this upward trend becoming more pronounced as development sustainability declines. Therefore, the threat of environmentally mediated HPB infections to human health may be more severe in a world where anthropogenic activities are intensifying and the global climate is warming.
气候变化正在深刻影响人类健康。由环境介导的人类致病细菌（HPB）感染被认为是全球健康损失的一个重要原因。然而，HPB的生物地理学及其对气候变化的反应在很大程度上仍然未知。在这里，我们利用全球1,066,584个样本构建并分析了潜在HPB的全球图谱。HPB广泛存在于全球环境中，其分布遵循纬度多样性梯度。气候和人为因素被确定为HPB全球分布的主要驱动因素。我们的预测表明，到本世纪末，HPB的丰富度、丰度和入侵风险将在全球范围内增加，随着发展可持续性的下降，这种上升趋势将变得更加明显。因此，在一个人为活动加剧和全球气候变暖的世界里，环境介导的HPB感染对人类健康的威胁可能会更加严重。
