Chen Qiuju, Wang Jungang
School of Economics and Management, Qujing Normal University, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan, China.
Shandong Changzhi Construction Engineering Co., LTD, Jinan, 25000, Shandong, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 27;15(1):10515. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-86412-1.
The top ten carbon-emitting countries contribute over 45% of global CO2 emissions, necessitating innovative approaches to achieve carbon neutrality and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study examines how digital economy (DE) economic growth (EG) and financial expansion (FINE) influence CO2 emissions, focusing on their direct and indirect impacts across different emission levels. Using data from 1990 to 2021, the study applies the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MM-QR) to capture the heterogeneous effects of DE and FINE across quantiles, complemented by Driscoll-Kraay (DK) regression for robustness. Key findings reveal that DE's direct impact on CO2 emissions intensifies in higher quantiles, with coefficients rising from 0.621 at quantile 8 to 1.178 at quantile 9. However, the interaction of DE with economic growth (EG) shows a mitigating effect, reducing emissions in higher quantiles (-0.082 at quantile 8 and - 0.105 at quantile 9). FINE consistently reduces emissions across all quantiles, with coefficients ranging from - 0.408 in lower quantiles to -0.350 in upper quantiles. Population density (PD) also mitigates environmental degradation, with its impact increasing in magnitude at higher quantiles (-0.163 at quantile 8 and - 0.171 at quantile 9). In contrast, EG directly exacerbates emissions, with stronger effects in lower quantiles (0.801 at quantile 1) that diminish at higher quantiles (0.242 at quantile 9). This study results contribute and underscore the dual role of digital economy (DE) in increasing emissions directly while mitigating them indirectly via economic growth, highlighting the need for targeted policies to harness digitalization and financial mechanisms for sustainable development.
十大碳排放国的二氧化碳排放量占全球总排放量的45%以上，因此需要创新方法来实现碳中和和可持续发展目标（SDGs）。本研究考察了数字经济（DE）、经济增长（EG）和金融扩张（FINE）如何影响二氧化碳排放，重点关注它们在不同排放水平上的直接和间接影响。该研究使用1990年至2021年的数据，应用矩分位数回归方法（MM-QR）来捕捉DE和FINE在不同分位数上的异质性影响，并辅以Driscoll-Kraay（DK）回归以确保稳健性。主要研究结果表明，DE对二氧化碳排放的直接影响在较高分位数上增强，系数从第8分位数的0.621升至第9分位数的1.178。然而，DE与经济增长（EG）的相互作用显示出缓解效应，在较高分位数上减少了排放（第8分位数为-0.082，第9分位数为-0.105）。FINE在所有分位数上都持续减少排放，系数范围从较低分位数的-0.408到较高分位数的-0.350。人口密度（PD）也减轻了环境退化，其影响在较高分位数上幅度增大（第8分位数为-0.163，第9分位数为-0.171）。相比之下，EG直接加剧了排放，在较低分位数上影响更强（第1分位数为0.801），在较高分位数上减弱（第9分位数为0.242）。本研究结果有助于强调数字经济（DE）在直接增加排放同时通过经济增长间接减少排放方面的双重作用，并突出了制定针对性政策以利用数字化和金融机制促进可持续发展的必要性。
