Hiyoshi Y, Omae T, Hirota Y, Takeshita M, Ueda K, Katsuki S
Am J Epidemiol. 1985 Jun;121(6):906-13. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a114060.
In a longitudinal study of a general population in Hisayama, Japan, 339 persons aged 40 years or over at death were autopsied during the period November 1, 1961-October 31, 1971. In 308 of these people, electrocardiograms taken at the periodic examinations were available, and Q.QS items of the Minnesota Code were recorded in 49 persons. The sensitivity of item 1-1 to autopsy-proven old myocardial infarction was 0.32 and the specificity was 0.95. Using the estimated prevalence of old myocardial infarction in this community--77 per 100,000--the proportion of persons without old myocardial infarction among those with item 1-1 in the general population (PF+) was 0.9954 and the proportion of persons with old myocardial infarction among those without item 1-1 (PF-) was 0.0005. The sensitivity of items 1-1 and 1-2 to old myocardial infarction was 0.43 and the specificity was 0.94. PF+ of items 1-1 and 1-2 was 0.9949 and PF- was 0.0005. These large values of PF+ mean that more than 99 per cent of persons with these items are probably false positives if these items are used as a screening test for this disease in the general population of this community, i.e., that these items cannot be defined as a definite myocardial infarction.
在日本久山町针对普通人群开展的一项纵向研究中,于1961年11月1日至1971年10月31日期间,对339名死亡时年龄在40岁及以上的人员进行了尸检。其中308人在定期检查时做了心电图,49人记录了明尼苏达编码的Q.QS项。1-1项对经尸检证实的陈旧性心肌梗死的敏感度为0.32,特异度为0.95。利用该社区陈旧性心肌梗死的估计患病率——每10万人中有77例——普通人群中1-1项阳性者中无陈旧性心肌梗死的比例(PF+)为0.9954,1-1项阴性者中有陈旧性心肌梗死的比例(PF-)为0.0005。1-1项和1-2项对陈旧性心肌梗死的敏感度为0.43,特异度为0.94。1-1项和1-2项的PF+为0.9949,PF-为0.0005。这些较大的PF+值意味着,如果在该社区普通人群中将这些项用作该病的筛查试验,那么有这些项的人中超过99%可能为假阳性,即这些项不能被定义为明确的心肌梗死。