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机器学习模型在预测死产中的应用。

The Application of Machine Learning Models to Predict Stillbirths.

作者信息

Gunenc Oguzhan, Dogru Sukran, Yaman Fikriye Karanfil, Ezveci Huriye, Metin Ulfet Sena, Acar Ali

机构信息

Konya City Hospital, Konya 42020, Turkey.

Division of Perinatology, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Medical School of Meram, Necmettin Erbakan University, Konya 42090, Turkey.

出版信息

Medicina (Kaunas). 2025 Mar 7;61(3):472. doi: 10.3390/medicina61030472.

Abstract

: This study aims to evaluate the predictive value of comprehensive data obtained in obstetric clinics for the detection of stillbirth and the predictive ability set of machine learning models for stillbirth. : The study retrospectively included all stillbirths followed up at a hospital between January 2015 and March 2024 and randomly selected pregnancies that resulted in a live birth. The electronic record system accessed pregnant women's maternal, fetal, and obstetric characteristics. Based on the perinatal characteristics of the cases, four distinct machine learning classifiers were developed: logistic regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and multilayer perceptron (MLP). : The study included a total of 951 patients, 499 of whom had live births and 452 of whom had stillbirths. The consanguinity rate, fetal anomalies, history of previous stillbirth, maternal thrombosis, oligohydramnios, and abruption of the placenta were significantly higher in the stillbirth group ( = 0.001). Previous stillbirth histories resulted in a higher rate of stillbirth (OR: 7.31, 95%CI: 2.76-19.31, = 0.001). Previous thrombosis histories resulted in a higher rate of stillbirth (OR: 14.13, 95%CI: 5.08-39.31, = 0.001). According to the accuracy estimates of the machine learning models, RF is the most successful model with 96.8% accuracy, 96.3% sensitivity, and 97.2% specificity. : The RF machine learning approach employed to predict stillbirths had an accuracy rate of 96.8%. We believe that the elevated success rate of stillbirth prediction using maternal, neonatal, and obstetric risk factors will assist healthcare providers in reducing stillbirth rates through prenatal care interventions.

摘要

本研究旨在评估产科诊所获取的综合数据对死产检测的预测价值以及机器学习模型对死产的预测能力。本研究回顾性纳入了2015年1月至2024年3月期间在一家医院随访的所有死产病例,并随机选择了活产的妊娠病例。电子记录系统记录了孕妇的母体、胎儿和产科特征。根据病例的围产期特征,开发了四种不同的机器学习分类器:逻辑回归(LR)、支持向量机(SVM)、随机森林(RF)和多层感知器(MLP)。本研究共纳入951例患者,其中499例为活产,452例为死产。死产组的近亲结婚率、胎儿异常、既往死产史、母体血栓形成、羊水过少和胎盘早剥显著更高(P = 0.001)。既往死产史导致死产率更高(OR:7.31,95%CI:2.76 - 19.31,P = 0.001)。既往血栓形成史导致死产率更高(OR:14.13,95%CI:5.08 - 39.31,P = 0.001)。根据机器学习模型的准确性估计,RF是最成功的模型,准确率为96.8%,灵敏度为96.3%,特异性为97.2%。用于预测死产的RF机器学习方法的准确率为96.8%。我们认为,利用母体、新生儿和产科风险因素提高死产预测成功率将有助于医疗保健提供者通过产前护理干预降低死产率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f2f3/11943628/f8c4853a7c23/medicina-61-00472-g001.jpg

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