A Spatiotemporal Analysis of a High-Resolution Molecular Network Reveals Shifts of HIV-1 Transmission Hotspots in Guangzhou, China.

BACKGROUND

High-resolution and longitudinal HIV molecular surveillance can inform the evolving hotspots to tailor regionally focused control strategies.

METHODS

HIV-1 sequences of three predominant genotypes (CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, and CRF55_01B) were collected for molecular network reconstruction from people living with HIV (PLWH) in Guangzhou (2018-2020). They were categorized by geographical residences into central, suburban, and outer suburban areas. Clustering rates, assortativity coefficients, and intensity matrices were employed to assess transmission dynamics, geographic mixing patterns, and intra- and inter-area transmission, respectively.

RESULTS

Of the 2469 PLWH, 55.5% resided in the central area. Clustering rates showed no significant differences across areas (44.5%, 40.6% vs. 45.7%; = 0.184). However, the transmission hotspots for CRF01_AE and CRF55_01B shifted to the outer suburban area. PLWH tended to form links within their local area (assortativity coefficient = 0.227, < 0.001), particularly for CRF01_AE (0.512, < 0.001; intra-area intensity = 69.2%). The central area exhibited the highest but decreasing intra-area transmission (74.5% to 30.2%), while intra- and inter-area transmission involving the outer suburban area increased (23.1% to 38.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite most PLWH residing in the central area, the outer suburban area emerged as the hotspot, requiring interventions towards both intra- and inter-area transmission.