Meng Yang, Li Furong, Zeng Shun, Liang Chaoqun, Chi Wei
State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology and Visual Science, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510060, China.
Shenzhen Eye Hospital, Shenzhen Eye Institute, Southern Medical University, Shenzhen, 518040, China.
Ophthalmol Ther. 2025 May;14(5):1065-1079. doi: 10.1007/s40123-025-01102-5. Epub 2025 Mar 28.
In this work, we aim to evaluate the trends and cross-country inequalities of the global trachoma burden from 1990 to 2021 and to project its burden to 2040.
This study was a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. Estimates for the prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of trachoma were extracted from the GBD 2021 database. Epidemiological characteristics of trachoma were reported at the global, regional, and national levels. Trend analysis, decomposition analysis, and health inequality analysis were used. The global trachoma burden was further projected to 2040 via Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.
Globally, 1,414,047 people were estimated to have trachoma in 2021, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 16.37 per 100,000 population. Between 1990 and 2021, the prevalent cases and DALY numbers of trachoma decreased by 30.2% and 34.4%, respectively. In 2021, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa was the region, and Ethiopia was the country with the highest number of trachoma cases. Decomposition analysis revealed that the reduction in the global burden was attributed primarily to epidemiological changes. From 1990 to 2021, countries with lower sociodemographic indices (SDIs) disproportionately bore the heaviest burden. While the prevalence and DALY rates are projected to decrease from 2022 to 2040, the prevalent cases and DALY numbers are expected to increase.
Over the past three decades, the global burden of trachoma has decreased significantly, but SDI-related inequalities among countries have persisted. Despite reductions in the prevalence rate, the number of patients with trachoma is projected to increase from 2022 to 2040. Our study provides valuable insights into the elimination of trachoma worldwide.
在本研究中，我们旨在评估1990年至2021年全球沙眼负担的趋势和国家间不平等情况，并预测到2040年的负担。
本研究是对《2021年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD 2021）的系统分析。从GBD 2021数据库中提取沙眼患病率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）的估计值。在全球、区域和国家层面报告沙眼的流行病学特征。采用趋势分析、分解分析和健康不平等分析。通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析将全球沙眼负担进一步预测到2040年。
2021年全球估计有1,414,047人患有沙眼，年龄标准化患病率为每10万人16.37例。1990年至2021年期间，沙眼的流行病例数和DALY数分别下降了30.2%和34.4%。2021年，撒哈拉以南非洲东部是沙眼病例数最多的地区，埃塞俄比亚是病例数最多的国家。分解分析表明，全球负担的减轻主要归因于流行病学变化。1990年至2021年，社会人口指数（SDI）较低的国家承担了不成比例的最重负担。虽然预计2022年至2040年患病率和DALY率将下降，但流行病例数和DALY数预计将增加。
在过去三十年中，全球沙眼负担显著下降，但国家间与SDI相关的不平等现象依然存在。尽管患病率有所下降，但预计2022年至2040年沙眼患者数量将增加。我们的研究为全球消除沙眼提供了有价值的见解。
