Mirzamohamadi Sara, HajiAbbasi Mohammad Navid, Roshandel Gholamreza, Ghorbani Somayeh, Badrkhahan Seyedeh Zahra, Makhtoumi Milad, Zahedi Maryam
Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 1;15(1):11174. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-95442-8.
In this study, we aimed to determine the incidence and predictors of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS). This study is a prospective population-based cohort study conducted in the Golestan province of Iran with the participation of 50,044 people aged 30 to 87 years between 2004 and 2008. Participants were followed up for 17 years for T2DM. The cumulative incidence of T2DM was 13.32% in the GCS. We observed hypertension (HTN) and dyslipidemia (DLP) increased the risk of T2DM 1.16 and 1.63 times relative to the healthy participants (RR: 1.16, 1.63, 95% CI : 1.102-1.222, 1.393-1.928, p < 0.001). For every one-unit increase in the body mass index (BMI), the risk of T2DM increased 1.09 times (RR: 1.09, 95% CI :1.086-1.106, p < 0.001). High-risk waist circumference (WC) increased the risk of T2DM by 1.89 times more than normal WC (RR: 1.89, 95% CI : 1.756-2.053, p < 0.001). Smokers had an 89% lower risk of T2DM than non-smokers (RR: 0.897, 95% CI : 0.814-0.989, p = 0.029). We conclude that environmental factors induce T2DM by affecting body fat. Also, other metabolic diseases could develop T2DM.
在本研究中，我们旨在确定戈勒斯坦队列研究（GCS）中2型糖尿病（T2DM）的发病率及预测因素。该研究是一项基于人群的前瞻性队列研究，于2004年至2008年在伊朗戈勒斯坦省开展，共有50044名年龄在30至87岁之间的人参与。参与者就T2DM接受了17年的随访。GCS中T2DM的累积发病率为13.32%。我们观察到，相对于健康参与者，高血压（HTN）和血脂异常（DLP）使T2DM风险分别增加了1.16倍和1.63倍（相对危险度：1.16、1.63，95%置信区间：1.102 - 1.222、1.393 - 1.928，p < 0.001）。体重指数（BMI）每增加一个单位，T2DM风险增加1.09倍（相对危险度：1.09，95%置信区间：1.086 - 1.106，p < 0.001）。高危腰围（WC）使T2DM风险比正常WC增加了1.89倍（相对危险度：1.89，95%置信区间：1.756 - 2.053，p < 0.001）。吸烟者患T2DM的风险比不吸烟者低89%（相对危险度：0.897，95%置信区间：0.814 - 0.989，p = 0.029）。我们得出结论，环境因素通过影响身体脂肪诱发T2DM。此外，其他代谢性疾病也可能引发T2DM。
