伊朗戈勒斯坦队列研究 15 年随访期间胰腺癌的发病率和危险因素。
Incidence and risk factors of pancreatic cancer during 15 years follow-up in the Golestan Cohort Study in Iran.
机构信息
Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2024 Jun 7;19(6):e0300736. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300736. eCollection 2024.
BACKGROUND
Cancer is one of the main causes of death in the worldwide. Pancreatic Cancer (PC) is prevalent in developed and increasing in developing countries. PC is important because of its low survival rate, high fatality, and increasing incidence. Therefore, identifying risk factors to prevent its development is necessary. This study aimed to determine incidence of PC and its risk factors in the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS) in Iran.
METHOD
This study is a prospective population-based cohort study in the frame of GCS with 15 years of follow-up for PC. GCS was launched in the Golestan province of Iran with 50045 participants who were 40 to 75 years old. variables included: age, gender, education status, smoking, alcohol consumption, opium usage, type of blood group, dyslipidemia, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), family history (FH) of PC, ethnicity, and history of diabetes mellitus (DM).
RESULT
Among 50045 participants of GCS during 15 years of follow up, 100 people were diagnosed PC. PC incidence was 0.2%. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of PC in the study population was 11.12 per 100,000 person-years. People with age ≥60 years were 46, in 50-59 years old group were 36, and 18 of them were <50 years (p<0.001). The smoking rate in PC group was 27% (p<0.01). Univariate model of cox regression analysis showed age 50-59, ≥60 years compared to <50 years [HR:3.006, 95%CI (1.707-5.294), p<0.001], [HR: 6.727, 95% CI (3.899-11.608), p<0.001], male gender [HR:1.541, 95%CI (1.041-2.281), p = 0.031], opium use [HR:1.436, 95% CI (0.887-2.324), p = 0.141], and smoking [HR:1.884, 95%CI (1.211-2.929), p = 0.005] were predictors for PC. In the multivariate model after adjusting, age 50-59 [HR:2.99, 95% CI (1.698-5.265), p<0.001], and ≥60 years [HR: 6.564, 95% CI (3.797-11.346), p<0.001] was the only predictor for PC.
CONCLUSION
This study revealed an incidence of PC 0.2% in GCS in Iran. Main risk factor for PC was older age.
背景
癌症是全球主要死亡原因之一。在发达国家，胰腺癌（PC）较为常见，在发展中国家则呈上升趋势。PC 之所以重要，是因为其生存率低、死亡率高且发病率不断上升。因此，识别风险因素以预防其发生是必要的。本研究旨在确定伊朗戈勒斯坦队列研究（GCS）中 PC 的发病率及其危险因素。
方法
本研究是一项以人群为基础的前瞻性队列研究，在 GCS 框架内对 PC 进行了 15 年的随访。GCS 在伊朗戈勒斯坦省开展，有 50045 名年龄在 40 至 75 岁之间的参与者。变量包括：年龄、性别、教育程度、吸烟、饮酒、鸦片使用、血型、血脂异常、体重指数（BMI）、腰围（WC）、PC 家族史（FH）、种族和糖尿病史（DM）。
结果
在 GCS 的 50045 名参与者中，在 15 年的随访期间，有 100 人被诊断为 PC。PC 的发病率为 0.2%。研究人群中 PC 的标准化发病率（ASR）为 11.12/100000 人年。年龄≥60 岁的患者为 46 人，50-59 岁组为 36 人，18 人年龄<50 岁（p<0.001）。PC 组的吸烟率为 27%（p<0.01）。Cox 回归单变量模型分析显示，与<50 岁相比，50-59 岁和≥60 岁[HR：3.006，95%CI（1.707-5.294），p<0.001]和[HR：6.727，95%CI（3.899-11.608），p<0.001]的年龄是 PC 的预测因素。男性[HR：1.541，95%CI（1.041-2.281），p=0.031]、鸦片使用[HR：1.436，95%CI（0.887-2.324），p=0.141]和吸烟[HR：1.884，95%CI（1.211-2.929），p=0.005]也是 PC 的预测因素。在调整后的多变量模型中，50-59 岁[HR：2.99，95%CI（1.698-5.265），p<0.001]和≥60 岁[HR：6.564，95%CI（3.797-11.346），p<0.001]是 PC 的唯一预测因素。
结论
本研究显示伊朗 GCS 中 PC 的发病率为 0.2%。PC 的主要危险因素是年龄较大。
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