Guo Qinfeng, Qian Hong, Qian Shenhua
USDA FS - Southern Research Station, 3041 E. Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA.
Research and Collections Center, Illinois State Museum, 1011 East Ash Street, Springfield, IL 62703, USA.
Plant Divers. 2024 Dec 2;47(2):255-263. doi: 10.1016/j.pld.2024.11.005. eCollection 2025 Mar.
The future distribution of invading species depends on the climate space available and certain life history traits that facilitate invasion. Here, to predict the spread potential of plant species introduced in North America north of Mexico (NAM), we compiled distribution and life history data (i.e., seed size, life form, and photosynthetic pathways) for 3021 exotic plant species introduced to NAM. We comparatively examined the species' range size and climate space in both native and exotic regions and the role of key life history traits. We found that large climate space for most exotic plants is still available in NAM. The range sizes in global exotic regions could better predict the current range sizes in NAM than those in global native regions or global native plus exotic regions. C3 species had larger ranges on average than C4 and CAM plants, and herbaceous species consistently showed stronger relationships in range size between native and exotic regions than woody species, as was the case within the C3 species group. Seed size was negatively related to range size both in native regions and in NAM. However, seed size surprisingly showed a positive correlation with global exotic range size and no correlation with the current actual global (native plus exotic) range size. Our findings underline the importance of species' native distribution and life history traits in predicting the spread of exotic species. Future studies should continue to identify potential climate space and use underappreciated species traits to better predict species invasions under changing climate.
入侵物种的未来分布取决于可用的气候空间以及某些有助于入侵的生活史特征。在此，为了预测引入墨西哥以北的北美洲（NAM）的植物物种的扩散潜力，我们汇编了3021种引入NAM的外来植物物种的分布和生活史数据（即种子大小、生活型和光合途径）。我们比较研究了这些物种在原生地和外来地的分布范围大小和气候空间，以及关键生活史特征的作用。我们发现，NAM地区大多数外来植物仍有较大的气候空间。全球外来地区的分布范围大小比全球原生地区或全球原生加外来地区的分布范围大小能更好地预测NAM地区当前的分布范围大小。C3植物的平均分布范围比C4和景天酸代谢（CAM）植物更大，并且草本植物在原生地和外来地之间的分布范围大小关系始终比木本植物更强，C3植物组内也是如此。种子大小在原生地区和NAM地区均与分布范围大小呈负相关。然而，种子大小令人惊讶地与全球外来分布范围大小呈正相关，与当前实际的全球（原生加外来）分布范围大小无相关性。我们的研究结果强调了物种原生分布和生活史特征在预测外来物种扩散方面的重要性。未来的研究应继续确定潜在的气候空间，并利用未得到充分重视的物种特征，以便在气候变化的情况下更好地预测物种入侵。
