Cai Yuzhou, Ye Ying, Qian Jingxian
Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan, 650032, China.
School of Basic Medical Sciences, Kunming Medical University, Yunnan, 650500, China.
Public Health. 2025 May;242:340-351. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2025.03.025. Epub 2025 Apr 3.
This study aimed to assess global, regional, and national trends in breast cancer burden attributable to high body mass index (BMI) from 1990 to 2021 and provide projections up to 2036 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.
Systematic analysis of the GBD 2021 dataset.
We extracted high BMI-related breast cancer data from the GBD 2021 dataset, covering 204 countries and territories. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to analyze temporal patterns and regional differences. Future trends were projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.
In 2021, high BMI contributed to 44,707 breast cancer deaths and 1,041,309 DALYs globally, reflecting a 138.5 % and 142.7 % increase, respectively, compared to 1990. While global age-standardized mortality and DALY rates remained relatively stable, the absolute burden significantly increased, particularly in low- and middle-SDI regions. High-SDI regions exhibited the highest age-standardized rates, but low-SDI regions showed the fastest growth. Projections indicate that the global burden of breast cancer due to high BMI will continue to rise until 2036, driven by increasing obesity rates and insufficient healthcare resources.
High body mass index is a major driver of the global breast cancer burden, showing increasing trends not only in high-income regions but more prominently in low-SDI regions. Effective strategies, including public health interventions targeting obesity management, are needed to control the rising burden.
本研究旨在评估1990年至2021年因高体重指数（BMI）导致的乳腺癌负担的全球、区域和国家趋势，并利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021研究的数据预测至2036年的情况。
对GBD 2021数据集进行系统分析。
我们从GBD 2021数据集中提取了与高BMI相关的乳腺癌数据，涵盖204个国家和地区。计算年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）和估计年百分比变化（EAPCs），以分析时间模式和区域差异。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来趋势。
2021年，高BMI导致全球44707例乳腺癌死亡和1041309个伤残调整生命年，与1990年相比分别增加了138.5%和142.7%。虽然全球年龄标准化死亡率和伤残调整生命年率保持相对稳定，但绝对负担显著增加，特别是在低和中等社会人口指数（SDI）地区。高SDI地区年龄标准化率最高，但低SDI地区增长最快。预测表明，由于高BMI导致的全球乳腺癌负担将持续上升至2036年，这是由肥胖率上升和医疗资源不足推动的。
高体重指数是全球乳腺癌负担的主要驱动因素，不仅在高收入地区呈上升趋势，在低SDI地区更为显著。需要有效的策略，包括针对肥胖管理的公共卫生干预措施，来控制不断上升的负担。
