Zhang Yusheng, Collins Adrian L
Net Zero and Resilient Farming, Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB UK.
Agron Sustain Dev. 2025;45(2):22. doi: 10.1007/s13593-025-01015-4. Epub 2025 Apr 2.
Agriculture is a key contributor to gaseous emissions causing climate change, the degradation of water quality, and biodiversity loss. The extant climate change crisis is driving a focus on mitigating agricultural gaseous emissions, but wider policy objectives, beyond net zero, mean that evidence on the potential co-benefits or trade-offs associated with on-farm intervention is warranted. For novelty, aggregated data on farm structure and spatial distribution for different farm types were integrated with high-resolution data on the natural environment to generate representative model farms. Accounting for existing mitigation effects, the Catchment Systems Model was then used to quantify global warming potential, emissions to water, and other outcomes for water management catchments across England under both business-as-usual and a maximum technically feasible mitigation potential scenario. Mapped spatial patterns were overlain with the distributions of areas experiencing poor water quality and biodiversity loss to examine potential co-benefits. The median business-as-usual GWP20 and GWP100, excluding embedded emissions, were estimated to be 4606 kg CO eq. ha (inter-quartile range 4240 kg CO eq. ha-) and 2334 kg CO eq. ha (inter-quartile range 1462 kg CO eq. ha), respectively. The ratios of business-as-usual GHG emissions to monetized farm production ranged between 0.58 and 8.89 kg CO eq. £ for GWP20, compared with 0.53-3.99 kg CO eq. £ for GWP100. The maximum mitigation potentials ranged between 17 and 30% for GWP20 and 19-27% for GWP100 with both corresponding medians estimated to be ~24%. Here, we show for the first time that the co-benefits for water quality associated with reductions in phosphorus and sediment loss were both equivalent to around a 34% reduction, relative to business-as-usual, in specific management catchment reporting units where excess water pollutant loads were identified. Several mitigation measures included in the mitigation scenario were also identified as having the potential to deliver co-benefits for terrestrial biodiversity.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-025-01015-4.
农业是导致气候变化、水质退化和生物多样性丧失的气体排放的关键贡献者。当前的气候变化危机促使人们关注减少农业气体排放，但除净零排放之外的更广泛政策目标意味着，有必要获取与农场干预相关的潜在协同效益或权衡取舍的证据。为了创新，将不同农场类型的农场结构和空间分布的汇总数据与自然环境的高分辨率数据相结合，以生成具有代表性的模型农场。考虑到现有的减排效果，然后使用集水区系统模型来量化英格兰各地水管理集水区在照常营业和最大技术可行减排潜力情景下的全球变暖潜能值、向水体的排放量以及其他水管理成果。将绘制的空间模式与水质差和生物多样性丧失地区的分布叠加，以研究潜在的协同效益。估计照常营业情况下的中位数20年全球变暖潜能值（GWP20）和100年全球变暖潜能值（GWP100）（不包括隐含排放）分别为4606千克二氧化碳当量·公顷（四分位间距为4240千克二氧化碳当量·公顷）和2334千克二氧化碳当量·公顷（四分位间距为1462千克二氧化碳当量·公顷）。照常营业情况下的温室气体排放量与货币化农场产量的比率，GWP20在0.58至8.89千克二氧化碳当量·英镑之间，而GWP100在0.53至3.99千克二氧化碳当量·英镑之间。GWP20的最大减排潜力在17%至30%之间，GWP100的最大减排潜力在19%至27%之间，两者对应的中位数估计均约为24%。在此，我们首次表明，在确定存在过量水污染物负荷的特定管理集水区报告单位中，与磷和沉积物流失减少相关的水质协同效益相当于相对于照常营业减少约34%。减排情景中包含的若干减排措施也被确定有可能为陆地生物多样性带来协同效益。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s13593-025-01015-4获取的补充材料。
