文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

Test allocation based on risk of infection from first and second order contact tracing.

作者信息

Gabriela Bayolo Soler, Miraine Dávila Felipe, Gayraud Ghislaine

机构信息

LMAC (Laboratory ofApplied Mathematics of Compiègne), Université de technologie de Compiègne,Compiègne, France.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Apr 7;20(4):e0320291. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0320291. eCollection 2025.


DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0320291
PMID:40193399
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11975095/
Abstract

Strategies such as testing, contact tracing, and quarantine have been proven to be essential mechanisms to mitigate the propagation of infectious diseases. However, when an epidemic spreads rapidly and/or the resources to contain it are limited (e.g., not enough tests available on a daily basis), to test and quarantine all the contacts of detected individuals is impracticable. In this direction, we propose a method to compute the individual risk of infection over time, based on the partial observation of the epidemic spreading through the population contact network. We define the risk of individuals as their probability of getting infected from any of the possible chains of transmission up to length-two, originating from recently detected individuals. Ranking individuals according to their risk of infection can serve as a decision-making tool to prioritise testing, quarantine, or other preventive measures. We evaluate interventions based on our risk ranking through simulations using a fairly realistic agent-based model calibrated for COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. We consider different scenarios to study the role of key quantities such as the number of daily available tests, the contact tracing time-window, the transmission probability per contact (constant versus depending on multiple factors), and the age since infection (for varying infectiousness). We find that, when there is a limited number of daily tests available, our method is capable of mitigating the propagation more efficiently than some other approaches in the recent literature on the subject. A crucial aspect of our method is that we provide an explicit formula for the risk, avoiding the large number of iterations required to achieve convergence for the algorithms proposed in the literature. Furthermore, neither the entire contact network nor a centralised setup is required. These characteristics are essential for the practical implementation using contact tracing applications.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/61fff2f6450d/pone.0320291.g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/8ae322dcecdd/pone.0320291.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/e455aad28727/pone.0320291.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/7d279ba9b4a1/pone.0320291.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/bad4f67c18d2/pone.0320291.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/a02ac5979ded/pone.0320291.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/d8529b1c9906/pone.0320291.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/c5dd0a5b0340/pone.0320291.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/e38e8ba72ebe/pone.0320291.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/2ec3faafdd3f/pone.0320291.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/2928daa41fa2/pone.0320291.g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/61fff2f6450d/pone.0320291.g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/8ae322dcecdd/pone.0320291.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/e455aad28727/pone.0320291.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/7d279ba9b4a1/pone.0320291.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/bad4f67c18d2/pone.0320291.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/a02ac5979ded/pone.0320291.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/d8529b1c9906/pone.0320291.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/c5dd0a5b0340/pone.0320291.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/e38e8ba72ebe/pone.0320291.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/2ec3faafdd3f/pone.0320291.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/2928daa41fa2/pone.0320291.g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5c5/11975095/61fff2f6450d/pone.0320291.g011.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Test allocation based on risk of infection from first and second order contact tracing.

PLoS One. 2025-4-7

[2]
A Data-Driven Simulation of the Exposure Notification Cascade for Digital Contact Tracing of SARS-CoV-2 in Zurich, Switzerland.

JAMA Netw Open. 2021-4-1

[3]
On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.

PLoS One. 2021

[4]
Downsizing of COVID-19 contact tracing in highly immune populations.

PLoS One. 2022

[5]
Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study.

Lancet Child Adolesc Health. 2020-8-3

[6]
Replacing quarantine of COVID-19 contacts with periodic testing is also effective in mitigating the risk of transmission.

Sci Rep. 2022-3-7

[7]
High infectiousness immediately before COVID-19 symptom onset highlights the importance of continued contact tracing.

Elife. 2021-4-26

[8]
Digital contact tracing technologies in epidemics: a rapid review.

Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2020-8-18

[9]
A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19.

BMC Med. 2020-6-25

[10]
Controlling COVID-19 via test-trace-quarantine.

Nat Commun. 2021-5-20

本文引用的文献

[1]
Big data, privacy and COVID-19 - learning from humanitarian expertise in data protection.

J Int Humanit Action. 2020

[2]
Effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app in a simulation model with indirect and informal contact tracing.

Epidemics. 2024-3

[3]
Modelling COVID-19 epidemic with confirmed cases-driven contact tracing quarantine.

Infect Dis Model. 2023-6

[4]
Super-spreaders of novel coronaviruses that cause SARS, MERS and COVID-19: a systematic review.

Ann Epidemiol. 2023-6

[5]
Proactive Contact Tracing.

PLOS Digit Health. 2023-3-13

[6]
Comparative effectiveness of contact tracing interventions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.

Eur J Epidemiol. 2023-3

[7]
A Bayesian generative neural network framework for epidemic inference problems.

Sci Rep. 2022-11-16

[8]
The History of Contact Tracing and the Future of Public Health.

Am J Public Health. 2022-8

[9]
When to test for COVID-19 using real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction: a systematic review.

Int J Infect Dis. 2022-10

[10]
Estimating the state of epidemics spreading with graph neural networks.

Nonlinear Dyn. 2022

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索