Guo Yuanzhi, Tian Yuan
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Foods. 2025 Mar 30;14(7):1214. doi: 10.3390/foods14071214.
The increasing population ageing in rural China has had a far-reaching impact on agricultural production structures. However, most of the existing studies on the impact of rural ageing on NGAP are based on a micro-farmer perspective and lack consideration under macro policies. This study analyses the impact of rural ageing on NGAP within the framework of food security strategy and examines this relationship using provincial panel data based on revealing the spatial-temporal characteristics of the two. The results show that the ageing level in rural China from 2005 to 2021 exhibited a rapidly rising trend and an unbalanced distribution pattern with decreasing spatial agglomeration, while the evolution of NGAP followed an upward and then downward trend, with an increasing degree of spatial agglomeration. Under the food security strategy, rural ageing has a significant dampening effect on NGAP, which mainly stems from the partial mediating roles of the increase in the area of farmland per labourer and agricultural-related fiscal investment. In light of the future trend of population ageing in rural China, targeted measures are needed to stabilize grain production and guarantee national food security.
中国农村人口老龄化加剧对农业生产结构产生了深远影响。然而，现有的关于农村老龄化对全国粮食产量（NGAP）影响的研究大多基于微观农户视角，缺乏宏观政策背景下的考量。本研究在粮食安全战略框架内分析农村老龄化对全国粮食产量的影响，并基于揭示二者时空特征的省级面板数据检验这种关系。结果表明，2005年至2021年中国农村老龄化水平呈快速上升趋势，且分布不均衡，空间集聚程度下降，而全国粮食产量的演变呈先上升后下降趋势，空间集聚程度上升。在粮食安全战略下，农村老龄化对全国粮食产量有显著抑制作用，这主要源于人均耕地面积增加和农业相关财政投入的部分中介作用。鉴于中国农村人口老龄化的未来趋势，需要采取针对性措施来稳定粮食生产并保障国家粮食安全。
