Zhang Jingjie, Jiang Feng, Gao Hongmei, Gu Haifeng, Song Pengfei, Zhang Tongzuo
State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture Qinghai University Xining Qinghai China.
Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology Chinese Academy of Sciences Xining China.
Ecol Evol. 2025 Apr 18;15(4):e71295. doi: 10.1002/ece3.71295. eCollection 2025 Apr.
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a biodiversity hotspot highly sensitive to global climate change. The Tibetan fox (), red fox (), and plateau pika () are key species of the plateau, serving as typical representatives of predators and prey among its diverse wildlife. To evaluate the impact of climate change, we employed the maximum entropy model with 1237 distribution points and various environmental variables to predict habitat suitability under three global climate models and four representative concentration pathways for the 2050s and 2070s. The results revealed that the suitable habitats for two predators were projected to decline, with reductions ranging from 0.23% to 5.64% and 4.12% to 6.63%, respectively, with most reductions occurring in the central-western and southern regions of the QTP. The decline was anticipated to be more pronounced in the 2070s compared to the 2050s. Conversely, the suitable habitat for prey species, plateau pikas, was expected to experience only a slight decrease (0.45%-0.98%) under scenarios of moderate greenhouse gas emissions. Habitat centroid analyses indicated a consistent northward migration of suitable areas for both predators and prey in response to climate change on the QTP. Furthermore, future overlap analysis between predator and prey habitats showed uncertain trends; however, the overlap between the Tibetan fox and Plateau pika habitats was notably lower compared to that of the red fox and plateau pika habitats. Regarding the current conservation efforts of both predators and prey, evaluation results highlighted the critical significant role of Sanjiangyuan National Park, China's first national park located in Qinghai Province, and Qiangtang Nature Reserve in Xizang as critical areas for the protection of these species on the QTP in China. The findings and methodologies of this research hold significant reference value for the conservation of predator and prey habitats in other global biodiversity hotspots.
青藏高原是一个对全球气候变化高度敏感的生物多样性热点地区。藏狐、赤狐和高原鼠兔是该高原的关键物种，是其多样野生动物中捕食者和猎物的典型代表。为评估气候变化的影响，我们使用具有1237个分布点和各种环境变量的最大熵模型，来预测在三种全球气候模型和四种代表性浓度路径下2050年代和2070年代的栖息地适宜性。结果显示，两种捕食者的适宜栖息地预计将减少，分别减少0.23%至5.64%和4.12%至6.63%，大部分减少发生在青藏高原中西部和南部地区。预计2070年代的减少幅度将比2050年代更为显著。相反，在中等温室气体排放情景下，猎物物种高原鼠兔的适宜栖息地预计只会略有减少（0.45%-0.98%）。栖息地质心分析表明，随着青藏高原气候变化，捕食者和猎物的适宜区域均一致向北迁移。此外，未来捕食者和猎物栖息地之间的重叠分析显示趋势不确定；然而，藏狐与高原鼠兔栖息地之间的重叠明显低于赤狐与高原鼠兔栖息地之间的重叠。关于目前对捕食者和猎物的保护工作，评估结果突出了位于青海省的中国首个国家公园三江源国家公园以及西藏羌塘自然保护区作为中国青藏高原这些物种保护关键区域的至关重要作用。本研究的结果和方法对其他全球生物多样性热点地区捕食者和猎物栖息地的保护具有重要参考价值。
