Wang Xiaoxu, Li Yinfang, Cao Zixin, Li Yunuo, Cao Jingyuan, Wang Yao, Li Min, Zheng Jing, Peng Siqi, Shi Wen, Wu Qianqian, Yang Junlan, Fang Yaping, Zhang Aiqing, Zhang Xiaoliang, Wang Bin
Department of Nephrology, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University School of Medicine, Nanjing, P.R. China.
Department of Pediatric, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, School of Pediatric, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, P.R. China.
Ren Fail. 2025 Dec;47(1):2491656. doi: 10.1080/0886022X.2025.2491656. Epub 2025 Apr 24.
BACKGROUND: Cardiac valve calcification (CVC) is common in dialysis patients and associated with increased cardiovascular risk. However, early screening has been limited by cost concerns. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model to enhance early detection of CVC. METHODS: Data were collected at four centers between 2020 and 2023, including 852 dialysis patients in the development dataset and 661 in the external validation dataset. Predictive factors were selected using LASSO regression combined with univariate and multivariate analyses. Machine learning models including CatBoost, XGBoost, decision tree, support vector machine, random forest, and logistic regression were used to develop the CVC risk model. Model performance was evaluated in both validation sets. Risk thresholds were defined using the Youden index and validated in the external dataset. RESULTS: In the development dataset, 32.9% of patients were diagnosed with CVC. Age, dialysis duration, alkaline phosphatase, apolipoprotein A1, and intact parathyroid hormone were selected to construct the CVC risk prediction model. CatBoost exhibited the best performance in the training dataset. The logistic regression model demonstrated the best predictive performance in both internal and external validation sets, with AUROCs of 0.806 (95% CI 0.750-0.863) and 0.757 (95% CI 0.720-0.793), respectively. Calibration curves and decision curves confirmed its predictive accuracy and clinical applicability. The logistic regression model was selected as the optimal model and achieved excellent risk stratification in CVC risk prediction. CONCLUSION: The predictive model effectively identifies CVC risk in dialysis patients and offers a robust tool for early detection and improved management.
背景:心脏瓣膜钙化(CVC)在透析患者中很常见,并且与心血管风险增加相关。然而,早期筛查一直受到成本问题的限制。本研究旨在开发并验证一种机器学习模型,以加强对CVC的早期检测。 方法:在2020年至2023年期间于四个中心收集数据,包括开发数据集中的852名透析患者和外部验证数据集中的661名患者。使用LASSO回归结合单变量和多变量分析来选择预测因素。使用包括CatBoost、XGBoost、决策树、支持向量机、随机森林和逻辑回归在内的机器学习模型来开发CVC风险模型。在两个验证集中评估模型性能。使用约登指数定义风险阈值,并在外部数据集中进行验证。 结果:在开发数据集中,32.9%的患者被诊断为CVC。选择年龄、透析时长、碱性磷酸酶、载脂蛋白A1和完整甲状旁腺激素来构建CVC风险预测模型。CatBoost在训练数据集中表现最佳。逻辑回归模型在内部和外部验证集中均表现出最佳预测性能,其曲线下面积(AUROC)分别为0.806(95%置信区间0.750-0.863)和0.757(95%置信区间0.720-0.793)。校准曲线和决策曲线证实了其预测准确性和临床适用性。逻辑回归模型被选为最佳模型,并在CVC风险预测中实现了出色的风险分层。 结论:该预测模型可有效识别透析患者的CVC风险,并为早期检测和改善管理提供了一个强大的工具。
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