老年重症肾衰竭患者死亡风险预测模型
Prediction Model for Risk of Death in Elderly Critically Ill Patients with Kidney Failure.
作者信息
Zeng Jinping, Ye Feng, Du Jiaolan, Zhang Min, Yang Jun, Wu Yinyin
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China.
Department of Nutrition and Toxicology, School of Public Health, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China.
出版信息
Medicina (Kaunas). 2025 Apr 1;61(4):640. doi: 10.3390/medicina61040640.
: Kidney failure (KF) is associated with high mortality, especially among critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Conversely, age is an independent risk factor for the development of KF. Therefore, understanding the mortality risk profile of elderly critically ill patients with KF can help clinicians in implementing appropriate measures to improve patients' prognosis. The aim of this study was to construct high-performance mortality risk prediction models for elderly ICU patients with KF using machine learning methods. : Elderly (≥65 years) ICU patients diagnosed with KF were selected and relevant information (including demographic details, vital signs, laboratory tests, etc.) was collected. They were randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets in a 6:2:2 ratio. Logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) methods were employed to develop prediction models for the risk of death in these elderly KF patients. The model's performance was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve, precision rate, recall rate, and decision curve analysis. Finally, breakdown plots were utilized to analyze the mortality risk of elderly KF patients. : A total of 8010 elderly ICU patients with KF were included in this study, among whom 1385 patients died. Mortality prediction models were constructed using various methods, with the areas under the curve (AUC) for the different models being 0.835 (LR model), 0.839 (RF model), 0.784 (SVM model), and 0.851 (XGBoost model), respectively. The integrated Brier score (IBS) for these models were 0.206 (LR model), 0.158 (RF model), 0.217 (SVM model), and 0.102 (XGBoost model), indicating that the XGBoost model and RF model exhibited superior differentiation and calibration capacity. Further analysis revealed that the XGBoost model outperformed the others in terms of both prediction accuracy and stability. Finally, based on the ranking of important features, the primary influencing factors for elderly KF patients were identified as urine output, metastatic solid tumor, body weight, body temperature, and severity score. : Several high-performing predictive models for mortality risk in elderly ICU patients with KF have been developed using various machine learning algorithms, with the XGBoost model demonstrating the best performance.
肾衰竭(KF)与高死亡率相关,尤其是在重症监护病房(ICU)的重症患者中。相反,年龄是KF发生的独立危险因素。因此,了解老年重症KF患者的死亡风险特征有助于临床医生采取适当措施改善患者预后。本研究的目的是使用机器学习方法为老年ICU KF患者构建高性能的死亡风险预测模型。
选择诊断为KF的老年(≥65岁)ICU患者,并收集相关信息(包括人口统计学细节、生命体征、实验室检查等)。他们以6:2:2的比例随机分为训练集、验证集和测试集。采用逻辑回归(LR)、随机森林(RF)、支持向量机(SVM)和极端梯度提升(XGBoost)方法为这些老年KF患者建立死亡风险预测模型。通过受试者工作特征曲线、精确率、召回率和决策曲线分析评估模型性能。最后,利用分解图分析老年KF患者的死亡风险。
本研究共纳入8010例老年ICU KF患者,其中1385例死亡。使用各种方法构建了死亡预测模型,不同模型的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.835(LR模型)、0.839(RF模型)、0.784(SVM模型)和0.851(XGBoost模型)。这些模型的综合Brier评分(IBS)分别为0.206(LR模型)、0.158(RF模型)、0.217(SVM模型)和0.102(XGBoost模型),表明XGBoost模型和RF模型具有更好的区分度和校准能力。进一步分析表明,XGBoost模型在预测准确性和稳定性方面均优于其他模型。最后,根据重要特征的排名,确定老年KF患者的主要影响因素为尿量、转移性实体瘤、体重、体温和严重程度评分。
使用各种机器学习算法开发了几种针对老年ICU KF患者死亡风险的高性能预测模型,其中XGBoost模型表现最佳。