Bianchini Juana, Filippitzi Maria-Eleni, Saegerman Claude
Research Unit of Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Applied to Veterinary Science (UREAR-ULiège), Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health (FARAH) Center, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Liège, 4000 Liege, Belgium.
Laboratory of Animal Health Economics, School of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece.
Viruses. 2025 Mar 27;17(4):479. doi: 10.3390/v17040479.
Sheep and goat pox (SGP) are animal diseases of important economic impact which have been emerging into new geographic areas, including occasional incursions in disease free countries. The main objective of this study is to observe and analyse the global distribution of SGP during an 18-year period (2005-2022). Countries' SGP epidemiology was characterised by classifying them according to the frequency of reporting years. A negative binomial regression model was used to test for associations between the economic status of a country, the sheep and goat populations, the continent, and the likelihood of an SGP outbreak occurring. A change-point analysis was used to determine significant change points of outbreaks for 18 years. Countries which presented high endemic status were mostly located in the North African region, the Middle East, and Asia, in particular India and China. Economic status was found to be significant for outbreak occurrence in endemic countries, in contrast to countries with outbreaks occurring where other socio-economic factors influence the disease occurrence. The total sheep and goat population was found to be significantly associated with countries and regions. The change-point analysis showed that changes in outbreak occurrence were observed when countries with most reported outbreaks controlled the diseases. While the husbandry and social conditions that exist in certain regions, particularly of Africa and Asia, make the prospect of SGP eradication highly unlikely, an effective implementation of vaccination strategies and control policies would decrease the incidence of SGP, improving animal health and economics in affected countries.
绵羊痘和山羊痘是具有重要经济影响的动物疾病，已蔓延至新的地理区域，包括偶尔传入无病国家。本研究的主要目的是观察和分析18年期间（2005 - 2022年）绵羊痘和山羊痘的全球分布情况。通过根据报告年份的频率对各国进行分类，来描述各国绵羊痘和山羊痘的流行病学特征。使用负二项回归模型来检验一个国家的经济状况、绵羊和山羊数量、所在大陆与绵羊痘和山羊痘爆发可能性之间的关联。采用变点分析来确定18年期间疫情爆发的显著变点。呈现高流行状态的国家大多位于北非地区、中东和亚洲，特别是印度和中国。研究发现，经济状况对于流行国家的疫情爆发具有显著影响，而在有疫情爆发的其他国家，其他社会经济因素会影响疾病的发生。绵羊和山羊的总数量与国家和地区显著相关。变点分析表明，当报告疫情最多的国家控制住疾病时，疫情爆发情况出现了变化。虽然非洲和亚洲等某些地区现有的养殖和社会条件使得根除绵羊痘和山羊痘的前景极不可能实现，但有效实施疫苗接种策略和控制政策将降低绵羊痘和山羊痘的发病率，改善受影响国家的动物健康和经济状况。
