Wu Yeying, Lu Zheng
School of Economics, Guangxi University, Nanning, Guangxi, China.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2025 Jul 1;21(4):952-964. doi: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf054.
The shift in value chain trade from globalization to regionalization has provided developing countries with opportunities for value chain upgrading and has influenced trade-related embodied carbon emissions. This study uses panel data on trade and carbon emissions between China and 21 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies from 1991 to 2021, applying a fixed-effects model to analyze changes in embodied carbon emissions. The focus is on China, the largest developing country, as it participates in the APEC regional value chain (RVC) in different ways. It is confirmed that China is leveraging RVCs to achieve industrial transformation from the perspective of value added. Subsequently, indicators for forward and backward participation in RVCs are constructed, recalculating their impacts on carbon emissions in terms of scale, structure, and technology. The results indicate that China's forward participation exhibits a "U-shaped" relationship with trade-related embodied carbon emissions, while backward participation demonstrates a negative correlation. Industrial heterogeneity analysis further highlights distinct impacts across high-tech, low-tech, pollution-intensive, and nonpollution-intensive sectors. Furthermore, scale effects, structural effects, and technological effects represent distinct pathways influencing trade-related carbon emissions. These findings can assist developing countries in advancing sustainable development and achieving carbon peak goals.
价值链贸易从全球化向区域化的转变为发展中国家提供了价值链升级的机会，并影响了与贸易相关的隐含碳排放。本研究使用1991年至2021年中国与21个亚太经合组织（APEC）经济体之间贸易和碳排放的面板数据，应用固定效应模型分析隐含碳排放的变化。重点是最大的发展中国家中国，因为它以不同方式参与亚太经合组织区域价值链（RVC）。研究证实，中国正在从附加值角度利用区域价值链实现产业转型。随后，构建了区域价值链前向和后向参与指标，重新计算它们在规模、结构和技术方面对碳排放的影响。结果表明，中国的前向参与与贸易相关的隐含碳排放呈“U形”关系，而后向参与则呈负相关。产业异质性分析进一步凸显了高科技、低科技、污染密集型和非污染密集型部门的不同影响。此外，规模效应、结构效应和技术效应是影响贸易相关碳排放的不同途径。这些发现有助于发展中国家推进可持续发展并实现碳达峰目标。
