Zhang Xinyi, Abdusuli Nurgul
College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, 830000, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 27;15(1):14729. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-99073-x.
The horse industry constitutes a vital economic sector in Xinjiang, China. This study quantitatively assesses the sector's sustainable development through eco-efficiency analysis across northern Xinjiang counties from 2001 to 2021. The research employs four analytical methods: the S-SBM model for efficiency measurement, kernel density estimation for distribution analysis, Moran's index for spatial autocorrelation examination, and convergence tests for long-term trend assessment. Results demonstrate a consistent decline in eco-efficiency, decreasing from 0.821 in 2001 to 0.444 in 2021, with an average value of 0.557. Significant regional disparities emerge, with efficiency scores ranging from 0.499 to 1.285 across different prefectures. Spatial analysis reveals pronounced clustering effects, particularly in Yili Prefecture. Convergence tests indicate the presence of β-convergence but the absence of σ-convergence, suggesting narrowing efficiency gaps over time despite persistent regional inequalities. These empirical findings provide substantive evidence for policymakers seeking to enhance Xinjiang's equine economy sustainability and resource efficiency. The study contributes to the limited literature on ecological efficiency measurement in animal husbandry sectors.
马产业是中国新疆的一个重要经济部门。本研究通过对2001年至2021年新疆北部各县的生态效率分析，对该部门的可持续发展进行了定量评估。该研究采用了四种分析方法：用于效率测量的S-SBM模型、用于分布分析的核密度估计、用于空间自相关检验的莫兰指数以及用于长期趋势评估的收敛性检验。结果表明，生态效率持续下降，从2001年的0.821降至2021年的0.444，平均值为0.557。出现了显著的区域差异，不同地区的效率得分在0.499至1.285之间。空间分析显示出明显的集聚效应，特别是在伊犁州。收敛性检验表明存在β收敛，但不存在σ收敛，这表明尽管区域不平等持续存在，但随着时间的推移效率差距正在缩小。这些实证研究结果为寻求提高新疆马经济可持续性和资源效率的政策制定者提供了实质性证据。该研究为畜牧业生态效率测量方面的有限文献做出了贡献。
