1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家的淋巴丝虫病伤残调整生命年及患病率:基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的趋势与健康不平等分析

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years and prevalence of lymphatic filariasis from 1990 to 2021: A trend and health inequality analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.

作者信息

Zhao Hang, Xu Tianshi, Shen Hao

机构信息

Suining Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Suining, Sichuan, China.

The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People's Hospital, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China.

出版信息

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2025 Apr 29;19(4):e0013017. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013017. eCollection 2025 Apr.

Abstract

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease predominantly affecting marginalized populations in resource-limited settings. It can lead to long-term deformities, disabilities, and reduced economic productivity. This study examines differences in Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) and prevalence of LF across countries and regions and predicts future trends. Trends were analyzed based on demographic factors and epidemiological changes, and cross-national health inequalities in LF were quantified. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, this study evaluated trends in age-standardized LF DALY rates and prevalence from 1990 to 2021, employing estimated annual percentage change. The study also assessed the relative contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes in LF burden trends. To quantify absolute and relative cross-country inequalities, the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index (CI) were applied. Additionally, Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict LF case numbers and prevalence from 2022 to 2030. The findings indicated that, in 2021, LF burden varied by age, sex, and region, with the highest prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years, males, and populations in low SDI regions. The global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of LF declined between 1990 and 2021, and predictions suggest this downward trend will continue through 2030. Potential changes adjusted by aging and population growth were the primary drivers of reductions in the number of LF cases and DALYs. Over the past few decades, the LF burden has concentrated in underdeveloped and disadvantaged regions. However, cross-national inequalities in LF are narrowing rapidly. These results emphasize the urgent need for sustained health interventions and public health policies to eliminate LF, particularly in low-income, high-risk regions such as Oceania. Targeted efforts are essential to improving the health and well-being of marginalized populations.

摘要

淋巴丝虫病(LF)是一种被忽视的热带病,主要影响资源有限环境中的边缘化人群。它可导致长期畸形、残疾,并降低经济生产力。本研究考察了各国和各地区之间伤残调整生命年(DALY)及淋巴丝虫病患病率的差异,并预测未来趋势。基于人口因素和流行病学变化分析趋势,并对淋巴丝虫病的跨国健康不平等进行量化。利用全球疾病负担(GBD)2021数据库的数据,本研究采用估计的年度百分比变化评估了1990年至2021年年龄标准化淋巴丝虫病DALY率和患病率的趋势。该研究还评估了老龄化、人口增长和流行病学变化在淋巴丝虫病负担趋势中的相对贡献。为了量化绝对和相对的跨国不平等,应用了不平等斜率指数(SII)和集中指数(CI)。此外,还使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022年至2030年的淋巴丝虫病病例数和患病率。研究结果表明,2021年,淋巴丝虫病负担因年龄、性别和地区而异,15至49岁人群、男性以及低社会人口指数(SDI)地区的人群患病率最高。1990年至2021年期间,全球年龄标准化的淋巴丝虫病患病率和DALY率有所下降,预测表明这一下降趋势将持续到2030年。经老龄化和人口增长调整后的潜在变化是淋巴丝虫病病例数和DALYs减少的主要驱动因素。在过去几十年中,淋巴丝虫病负担集中在欠发达和处境不利地区。然而,淋巴丝虫病的跨国不平等正在迅速缩小。这些结果强调迫切需要持续的健康干预措施和公共卫生政策来消除淋巴丝虫病,特别是在大洋洲等低收入、高风险地区。有针对性的努力对于改善边缘化人群的健康和福祉至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f9e/12040265/115f629e939a/pntd.0013017.g001.jpg

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