Enhancing food security and livelihoods through dry season farming as a climate resilience strategy: A study in the Upper East Region of Ghana.

Despite the construction of small earth dams in northern Ghana to promote dry-season farming as a climate-resilient strategy, empirical evidence on their impact on farm households' welfare remains scarce. This study examines households' decisions to participate in dry-season cropping using small dams and its implications for food security. Cross-sectional data from 275 farm households in the Upper East region of Ghana were analyzed using logistic regression and the Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment (IPWRA) model. Marginal effects indicate that market access has the highest significant positive impact (0.19, p < 0.10) on participation, followed by farm training (0.18, p < 0.01) and land size (0.05, p < 0.05). Conversely, distance to the dam has the highest significant negative effect (-0.03, p < 0.05), followed by extension access (-0.02, p < 0.10) and farming experience (-0.02, p < 0.01). The IPWRA results show that participation in dry-season farming reduces household food insecurity by 35.65 %, increases dietary diversity by 38.95 %, and boosts income by 17.51 % compared to non-participants. The Propensity Score Matching (PSM) robustness check confirms these findings, with food access improving by 0.491-0.581 times and dietary diversity by 0.541-0.571 times. Error analysis using PBIAS indicates a model bias of -3.42 %, suggesting a satisfactory predictive performance. To enhance participation and benefits, targeted extension services and training programs should be strengthened.