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使用新型数学模型和双剂量疫苗接种方法对拉沙热控制进行的流行病学分析。

Epidemiological analysis of Lassa fever control using novel mathematical modeling and a dual-dosage vaccination approach.

作者信息

Yunus Akeem Olarewaju, Olayiwola Morufu Oyedunsi

机构信息

Department of Mathematical Science, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria.

出版信息

BMC Res Notes. 2025 Apr 30;18(1):199. doi: 10.1186/s13104-025-07218-y.

Abstract

Lassa fever is a serious health issue in West Africa that requires deeper understanding in order to be effectively controlled. Compared to conventional integer-order methods, this study presents an improved analysis of disease dynamics, including vaccine efficacy, by utilizing fractional-order models and the Laplace Adomian Decomposition methods. This research highlights the critical role of fractional-order dynamics and vaccination impact in understanding Lassa fever transmission and evaluating control strategies. It employs stability and sensitivity analyses, as well as the next-generation matrix method, to assess the basic reproduction number. The study offers novel insights into the importance of expanded vaccination coverage, setting it apart from previous works. The study demonstrated that preventive strategies, particularly double-dose vaccinations, are extremely efficient in controlling Lassa fever and lowering infection rates. It emphasizes the significance of increasing vaccination efforts to safeguard groups that are susceptible. The findings offer important epidemiological insights, boosting efforts to eradicate the disease and improve public health in West Africa and beyond.

摘要

拉沙热是西非一个严重的健康问题,需要深入了解以便有效控制。与传统的整数阶方法相比,本研究通过利用分数阶模型和拉普拉斯 - 阿达米分解方法,对包括疫苗效力在内的疾病动态进行了改进分析。这项研究突出了分数阶动力学和疫苗接种影响在理解拉沙热传播及评估控制策略方面的关键作用。它采用稳定性和敏感性分析以及下一代矩阵方法来评估基本再生数。该研究为扩大疫苗接种覆盖率的重要性提供了新颖见解,与以往的研究不同。研究表明,预防策略,特别是双剂量疫苗接种,在控制拉沙热和降低感染率方面极其有效。它强调了加大疫苗接种力度以保护易感群体的重要性。这些发现提供了重要的流行病学见解,推动了在西非及其他地区根除该疾病和改善公共卫生的努力。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b88d/12044729/fde39a61f2f6/13104_2025_7218_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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