Rogoll Lisa, Schulz Katja, Schulz Jana
Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Südufer 10, 17493, Greifswald - Insel Riems, Germany.
BMC Vet Res. 2025 May 2;21(1):313. doi: 10.1186/s12917-025-04747-3.
Despite concerted efforts to control the disease, African swine fever (ASF) continues to spread in numerous regions across Europe. The circulation of the virus in wild boar populations poses an ongoing risk of transmission to domestic pig holdings and results in significant socio-economic losses. Controlling ASF in wild boar has proven to be a complex endeavor that affects many different sectors of society, with different focal points of interest and potential for conflict. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of stakeholder challenges and identify leverage points for effective interventions, a multidisciplinary Systems Thinking approach was applied. Participatory modeling workshops were conducted in an ASF-affected area of Germany with stakeholders from public institutions, forestry, conservation, agriculture, and the food industry in order to provide a comprehensive understanding of the stakeholders' perception of the complex system of ASF control. Causal Loop Diagrams were developed jointly with stakeholders to capture and visualize the interconnections within the system from stakeholders' perspective.
During the workshops, participants emphasized the need for transparent and rapid communication among all affected stakeholders and the importance of of raising public awareness about ASF for an effective response to outbreaks. Participants identified the complexity of the ASF control system, represented by a preliminary Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) with 260 loops, including 131 balancing and 129 reinforcing loops. These feedback processes illustrate the dynamic and interconnected nature of ASF control efforts, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for intervention. In addition, the participants stressed the need for early preparation of relevant resources for potential ASF outbreaks. Effectiveness and unintended consequences of control measures represented a major concern for the participants. Furthermore, participants emphasized the need to standardize and harmonize processes across different regions of Germany to improve the effectiveness of ASF control efforts.
The findings underscore the importance of integrating stakeholder insights into the design of ASF control measures to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability. The complexity of the system, as represented by the numerous feedback loops, highlights the need for adaptive and collaborative approaches in managing ASF outbreaks. Moving forward, discussions with scientists and decision-makers will be essential to refine and implement these insights into actionable strategies for effective ASF management. Engaging stakeholders in the modeling process fosters ownership, collaboration, and compliance, which are crucial for successful implementation of ASF control measures. Furthermore, transdisciplinary research is providing valuable insights for regions or countries yet unaffected by ASF, helping them prepare effectively for potential outbreaks.
尽管为控制该疾病付出了协同努力，但非洲猪瘟（ASF）仍在欧洲众多地区继续蔓延。病毒在野猪种群中的传播持续构成向家猪养殖场传播的风险，并导致重大的社会经济损失。事实证明，控制野猪身上的非洲猪瘟是一项复杂的工作，会影响社会的许多不同部门，涉及不同的利益关注点和冲突可能性。为了全面了解利益相关者面临的挑战并确定有效干预的杠杆点，采用了多学科系统思维方法。在德国一个受非洲猪瘟影响的地区，与来自公共机构、林业、保护部门、农业和食品行业的利益相关者举办了参与式建模研讨会，以便全面了解利益相关者对非洲猪瘟控制系统复杂性的看法。与利益相关者共同绘制了因果循环图，从利益相关者的角度捕捉并可视化系统内的相互联系。
在研讨会上，参与者强调了所有受影响的利益相关者之间进行透明和快速沟通的必要性，以及提高公众对非洲猪瘟的认识对于有效应对疫情的重要性。参与者认识到非洲猪瘟控制系统的复杂性，用一个包含260个回路（其中131个为平衡回路，129个为增强回路）的初步因果循环图（CLD）来表示。这些反馈过程说明了非洲猪瘟控制工作的动态性和相互关联性，突出了干预的挑战和机遇。此外，参与者强调需要为潜在的非洲猪瘟疫情提前准备相关资源。控制措施的有效性和意外后果是参与者主要关注的问题。此外，参与者强调需要在德国不同地区规范和协调流程，以提高非洲猪瘟控制工作的有效性。
研究结果强调了将利益相关者的见解纳入非洲猪瘟控制措施设计中的重要性，以确保其有效性和可持续性。由众多反馈回路所代表的系统复杂性，凸显了在管理非洲猪瘟疫情时采用适应性和协作性方法的必要性。展望未来，与科学家和决策者的讨论对于完善并将这些见解转化为有效的非洲猪瘟管理可操作策略至关重要。让利益相关者参与建模过程可促进主人翁意识、协作和合规，这对于成功实施非洲猪瘟控制措施至关重要。此外，跨学科研究正在为尚未受非洲猪瘟影响的地区或国家提供宝贵见解，帮助它们有效应对潜在疫情。
