Burden of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernias in India: A systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs from global burden of disease study 1990-2021 with projections to 2031.

BACKGROUND

Hernias are a major health concern in India, with varying incidence and prevalence influenced by socio-demographic factors. Despite global advances in hernia management, regional disparities are evident within India.

METHOD

This analysis utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to examine inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernias across India from 1990 to 2021, categorized by ICD-10 codes. Key metrics analyzed included prevalence, incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), with age-standardized rates (ASRs). The Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) for incidence and mortality, Spearman correlation for assessing the relationship between Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and hernia metrics, and ARIMA models for future trend projections were employed.

RESULT

Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of hernias in India decreased from 143.85 to 137.05 per 100,000, a reduction of 4.72%, despite a 46% increase in the absolute number of hernia cases due to population growth. Mortality rates significantly declined by 57.05%. DALYs also decreased from 98.01 to 43.51 per 100,000. Projections for 2031 indicate stabilization of incidence rates and an increase in prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant improvements in hernia management in India have been achieved over three decades, driven by advances in healthcare and socio-demographic progress. However, the rising number of cases and expected increase in prevalence highlight the need for enhanced healthcare strategies and resource allocation to manage the hernia burden effectively.