Althobaity Yehya M, Tildesley Michael J
Department of Mathematics, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 6;15(1):15748. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-99252-w.
In May 2022, Mpox outbreaks emerged in regions where the virus is not traditionally prevalent. This study estimates the mean incubation period, serial interval and the extent of presymptomatic transmission in the Arab Gulf Countries (AGC). The effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) is also calculated, as well as the degree of heterogeneity ([Formula: see text]), using the instant-individual heterogeneity transmission model. We analyze data from 41 confirmed cases for which we have complete information, estimating the mean incubation period using gamma, Weibull and lognormal distributions, with respective means of 8.52 (95% CI 7.26-9.98), 8.57 (95% CI 7.28-10.01), and 8.64 (95% CI 7.23-10.26) days. The mean serial interval, based on 31 case pairs, was 7.19 days (95% CI 4.11-12.95), 7.16 days (95% CI 5.80-8.90), and 10.0 days (95% CI 6.30-16.3) for the gamma, Weibull, and lognormal distributions, respectively. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) validated the best-fitting models. The serial intervals were shorter than the incubation periods, suggesting that pre-symptomatic transmission occurred in 60% of transmission events. We estimated [Formula: see text] to be 0.95 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 0.93-1.35) and [Formula: see text] to be 1.52 (95% HPD: 1.07-5.76), indicating supercritical Mpox transmission in the AGC with limited transmission heterogeneity. Using a Bayesian framework with non-informative priors and a negative binomial distribution, we projected [Formula: see text] to remain between 0.95 and 1.0 from August 2022 to January 2023, underscoring the need for continued efforts to reduce transmissibility. These findings provide valuable information for public health interventions, emphasizing a multifaceted approach to managing Mpox transmission.
2022年5月，猴痘疫情在该病毒传统上并不流行的地区出现。本研究估计了阿拉伯海湾国家（AGC）的平均潜伏期、连续间隔时间以及症状前传播的程度。还使用即时个体异质性传播模型计算了有效繁殖数（[公式：见原文]）以及异质性程度（[公式：见原文]）。我们分析了41例确诊病例的完整数据，分别使用伽马分布、威布尔分布和对数正态分布估计平均潜伏期，其均值分别为8.52天（95%置信区间7.26 - 9.98）、8.57天（95%置信区间7.28 - 10.01）和8.64天（95%置信区间7.23 - 10.26）。基于31对病例的平均连续间隔时间，伽马分布、威布尔分布和对数正态分布分别为7.19天（95%置信区间4.11 - 12.95）、7.16天（95%置信区间5.80 - 8.90）和10.0天（95%置信区间6.30 - 16.3）。赤池信息准则（AIC）验证了最佳拟合模型。连续间隔时间短于潜伏期，表明60%的传播事件中存在症状前传播。我们估计[公式：见原文]为0.95（95%最高后验密度[HPD]：0.93 - 1.35），[公式：见原文]为1.52（95% HPD：1.07 - 5.76），表明AGC地区猴痘传播处于超临界状态且传播异质性有限。使用具有非信息先验和负二项分布的贝叶斯框架，我们预测从2022年8月到2023年1月[公式：见原文]将保持在0.95至1.0之间，强调需要持续努力降低传播性。这些发现为公共卫生干预提供了有价值的信息，强调了管理猴痘传播的多方面方法。
