Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Center for Statistical Science, Peking University, Beijing, China.
J Med Virol. 2024 Feb;96(2):e29442. doi: 10.1002/jmv.29442.
Starting from May 31, 2023, the local transmission of monkeypox (Mpox) in mainland China began in Beijing. Till now, the transmission characteristics have not been explored. Based on the daily Mpox incidence data in the first 3 weeks of Beijing (from May 31 to June 21, 2023), we employed the instant-individual heterogeneity transmission model to simultaneously calculate the effective reproduction number (R ) and the degree of heterogeneity (k) of the Beijing epidemic. We additionally simulated the monthly infection size in Beijing from July to November and compared with the reported data to project subsequent transmission dynamics. We estimated R to be 1.68 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 1.12-2.41), and k to be 2.57 [95% HPD: 0.54-83.88], suggesting the transmission of Mpox in Beijing was supercritical and didn't have considerable transmission heterogeneity. We projected that R fell in the range of 0.95-1.0 from July to November, highlighting more efforts needed to further reduce the Mpox transmissibility. Our findings revealed supercritical and homogeneous transmission of the Mpox epidemic in Beijing. Our results could serve as a reference for understanding and predicting the ongoing Mpox transmission in other regions of China and evaluating the effect of control measures.
自 2023 年 5 月 31 日起，中国大陆的猴痘（Mpox）本地传播始于北京。截至目前，尚未探索其传播特征。基于北京前 3 周（2023 年 5 月 31 日至 6 月 21 日）的每日猴痘发病率数据，我们采用即时个体异质性传播模型同时计算北京疫情的有效繁殖数（R）和异质性程度（k）。我们还模拟了北京 7 月至 11 月的每月感染规模，并与报告数据进行了比较，以预测后续的传播动态。我们估计 R 为 1.68（95%最高后验密度[HPD]：1.12-2.41），k 为 2.57 [95% HPD：0.54-83.88]，表明北京的猴痘传播呈超临界状态，且没有相当大的传播异质性。我们预测，7 月至 11 月 R 值将在 0.95-1.0 的范围内，突出了需要进一步努力降低猴痘传播率。我们的研究结果表明，北京的猴痘疫情呈超临界和同质传播。我们的研究结果可作为了解和预测中国其他地区正在进行的猴痘传播以及评估控制措施效果的参考。
