使用功能、结构和神经心理学预测指标预测认知变化。
Predicting cognitive change using functional, structural, and neuropsychological predictors.
作者信息
Décarie-Labbé Laurie, Mellah Samira, Dialahy Isaora Z, Belleville Sylvie
机构信息
Research Center, Institut universitaire de gériatrie de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H3W 1W5.
Department of Psychology, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H3C 3J7.
出版信息
Brain Commun. 2025 Apr 18;7(3):fcaf155. doi: 10.1093/braincomms/fcaf155. eCollection 2025.
To effectively address Alzheimer's disease, it is crucial to understand its earliest manifestations, underlying mechanisms and early markers of progression. Recent findings of very early brain activation anomalies highlight their potential for early disease characterization and predicting future cognitive decline. Our objective was to evaluate the value of brain activation-both individually and in combination with structural and neuropsychological measures-for predicting cognitive change. The study included 105 individuals from the Consortium for the Early Identification of Alzheimer's Disease-Quebec cohort who exhibited subjective cognitive decline or mild cognitive impairment. Cognitive decline was assessed by calculating the slope of Montreal Cognitive Assessment scores using regression models across successive assessments, and individuals were characterized as either decliners or stable based on clinically reliable change. We evaluated cognitive decline predictions using unimodal models for each class of predictors and multimodal models that combined these predictors. Functional activation emerged as a strong predictor of cognitive change (R²=52.5%), with 87.6% accuracy and 98.7% specificity, performing comparably to structural and neuropsychological measures. Although the unimodal functional model exhibited high specificity, indicating that functional abnormalities frequently predict future decline, it had low sensitivity (60%), meaning that the absence of abnormalities does not rule out future decline. Multimodal models provided greater explanatory power than unimodal models and greater sensitivity than the functional model. These findings highlight the potential role of early brain activation anomalies in the early detection of future cognitive changes, offering valuable insights for clinicians and researchers in assessing cognitive decline risk and refining clinical trial criteria.
为有效应对阿尔茨海默病,了解其最早表现、潜在机制及疾病进展的早期标志物至关重要。近期关于极早期脑激活异常的研究结果凸显了它们在疾病早期特征化及预测未来认知衰退方面的潜力。我们的目标是评估脑激活——单独以及与结构和神经心理学测量相结合——在预测认知变化方面的价值。该研究纳入了来自魁北克阿尔茨海默病早期识别联盟队列的105名个体,这些个体表现出主观认知衰退或轻度认知障碍。通过使用连续评估的回归模型计算蒙特利尔认知评估分数的斜率来评估认知衰退,并且根据临床可靠变化将个体分为衰退者或稳定者。我们使用针对每类预测因子的单峰模型以及组合这些预测因子的多峰模型来评估认知衰退预测。功能激活成为认知变化的有力预测因子(R² = 52.5%),准确率为87.6%,特异性为98.7%,与结构和神经心理学测量表现相当。尽管单峰功能模型具有高特异性,表明功能异常经常预测未来衰退,但它的敏感性较低(60%),这意味着无异常并不能排除未来衰退。多峰模型比单峰模型提供了更大的解释力,并且比功能模型具有更高的敏感性。这些发现突出了早期脑激活异常在未来认知变化早期检测中的潜在作用,为临床医生和研究人员评估认知衰退风险及完善临床试验标准提供了有价值的见解。