Roberts Ryan, Brent Alan, Hinkley James Jim, Cavana Robert Y
Sustainable Energy Systems, Wellington Faculty of Engineering, Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
School of Management, Wellington School of Business and Government, Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
J R Soc N Z. 2024 Aug 8;55(4):1167-1186. doi: 10.1080/03036758.2024.2385082. eCollection 2025.
The Aotearoa New Zealand electricity sector is undergoing a transition to more distributed electricity generation, largely driven by the private sector. Local actors, however, are increasingly interested in playing a role in the energy transition, and addressing their resilience, with community renewable energy (CRE). These projects often have a wide range of impacts, dependent on the community's motivations, as well as the design and operation of the project. However, there is a lack of tools that can accurately quantify the impacts derived from CRE projects, and guide communities to build a portfolio of projects. This study used system dynamics modelling to analyse the impacts of CRE projects over a 40-year time span. The Energise Ōtaki community group in Aotearoa New Zealand was used as a case study given their already established CRE project and goals to expand their project portfolio. The system dynamics model showed if the community reinvested 80% of the profits from the first project into a second project would provide the greatest long-term benefit for the community in terms of the impact areas important to them. System dynamics modelling proved a useful tool in evaluating the wide range of impacts, and how they interact.
新西兰奥塔哥地区的电力部门正在向更加分布式的发电方式转型，这在很大程度上是由私营部门推动的。然而，当地各方越来越有兴趣在能源转型中发挥作用，并通过社区可再生能源（CRE）来提升自身的适应能力。这些项目往往会产生广泛的影响，具体取决于社区的动机以及项目的设计和运营。然而，目前缺乏能够准确量化CRE项目所产生影响并指导社区构建项目组合的工具。本研究使用系统动力学建模来分析CRE项目在40年时间跨度内的影响。鉴于新西兰奥塔哥地区的Energise Ōtaki社区团体已经建立了CRE项目并制定了扩大项目组合的目标，因此将其用作案例研究。系统动力学模型显示，如果社区将第一个项目80%的利润再投资于第二个项目，就对社区重要的影响领域而言，将为社区带来最大的长期利益。系统动力学建模被证明是评估广泛影响及其相互作用方式的有用工具。
