Song Pengyang, Scholz Patrick, Knorr Gregor, Sidorenko Dmitry, Timmermann Ralph, Lohmann Gerrit
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany.
MARUM-Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
Nat Clim Chang. 2025;15(5):521-527. doi: 10.1038/s41558-025-02306-0. Epub 2025 Apr 10.
Antarctic basal melt is crucial for the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ocean circulation. However, few Earth system models explicitly simulate ice-shelf cavities. Here, using an Earth system model with interactive Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, we show that regional hydrography and topography determine a cavity tipping point. The Filchner-Ronne ice-shelf cavity will encounter such a tipping point with abrupt warm-water intrusion, rapid basal melt increase and massive freshwater release in response to increasing CO levels within this century. Conversely, the Ross Ice Shelf shows a more gradual response. Our results also suggest that previous ice-sheet modelling overestimated future ice-shelf melt, highlighting the need for comprehensive Earth system models with interactive ice-sheet dynamics and cavities for better climate projections.
南极冰盖底部融化对于南极冰盖和海洋环流的未来演变至关重要。然而，很少有地球系统模型能明确模拟冰架腔。在此，我们使用一个具有交互式南极冰架腔的地球系统模型表明，区域水文地理和地形决定了一个腔的临界点。菲尔希纳-龙尼冰架腔在本世纪内随着二氧化碳水平上升，将遭遇这样一个临界点，即暖水突然侵入、底部融化迅速增加以及大量淡水释放。相反，罗斯冰架的反应则较为缓慢。我们的结果还表明，以往的冰盖建模高估了未来冰架的融化情况，这凸显了需要具备交互式冰盖动力学和冰架腔的综合地球系统模型，以进行更好的气候预测。
