Zhang Liping, Delworth Thomas L, Koul Vimal, Ross Andrew, Stock Charles, Yang Xiaosong, Zeng Fanrong, Wittenberg Andrew, Zhao Jian, Gu Qinxue, Li Shouwei
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA.
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Sci Adv. 2025 May 16;11(20):eads4419. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.ads4419.
Using tide gauge (TG) observations, we identify pronounced multidecadal fluctuations in sea level along the US Northeast Coast (USNEC) superimposed on a long-term increasing trend. This multidecadal sea level variability, largely arising from fluctuations in the buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), substantially modulates the frequency of flood occurrences along the USNEC and serves as a source of multiyear predictability. Using an initialized dynamical downscaling decadal prediction system with a /° ocean resolution, we demonstrate that flood frequency along the USNEC can be predicted on multiyear to decadal timescales. The long-term increasing trend in flood frequency, mainly driven by increasing greenhouse gases and associated radiative forcing changes, can be predicted a decade ahead. Furthermore, detrended flood frequency along the USNEC exhibits prediction skill for up to 3 years, as verified by TG observation. This multiyear prediction skill is achieved using prediction models that are initialized from our best estimate of observed AMOC.
利用验潮仪（TG）观测数据，我们识别出美国东北海岸（USNEC）海平面存在明显的多年代际波动，且叠加在长期上升趋势之上。这种多年代际海平面变化主要源于浮力驱动的大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）的波动，它极大地调节了美国东北海岸洪水发生的频率，并成为多年可预测性的一个来源。使用一个具有1°海洋分辨率的初始化动力降尺度年代际预测系统，我们证明美国东北海岸的洪水频率可以在多年到年代际时间尺度上进行预测。洪水频率的长期上升趋势主要由温室气体增加和相关辐射强迫变化驱动，可以提前十年预测。此外，经TG观测验证，美国东北海岸去趋势化的洪水频率具有长达3年的预测技巧。这种多年预测技巧是通过使用从我们对观测到的AMOC的最佳估计初始化的预测模型实现的。
