Shaw H M, Beattie C W, McCarthy W H, Milton G W
Arch Surg. 1985 Oct;120(10):1155-9. doi: 10.1001/archsurg.1985.01390340053010.
In 1,283 patients with cutaneous stage I malignant melanoma who had ten or more years of follow-up, the incidence of late recurrence (first evidence of metastases occurring ten or more years after melanoma diagnosis) was 2.7%. None of the factors of prognostic importance (anatomic site, tumor thickness, ulcerative state of primary lesion, or initial surgical treatment) proved useful in predicting those patients with late recurrence. There was no sex or age difference in either incidence of late recurrence or prognosis subsequent to recurrence. Prognosis subsequent to late recurrence depended on the site of the recurrence. Survival after distant metastases became evident was extremely short. However, in the majority (53%) of patients, late recurrence was local and survival subsequent to treatment of these metastases was often protracted, emphasizing the importance of long-term follow-up in all patients with cutaneous melanoma.
在1283例处于皮肤I期恶性黑色素瘤且有十年或更长时间随访的患者中，晚期复发（黑色素瘤诊断十年或更长时间后首次出现转移迹象）的发生率为2.7%。没有任何一个具有预后重要性的因素（解剖部位、肿瘤厚度、原发灶溃疡状态或初始手术治疗）被证明对预测晚期复发患者有用。晚期复发的发生率或复发后的预后在性别或年龄上均无差异。晚期复发后的预后取决于复发部位。远处转移明显后的生存期极短。然而，在大多数（53%）患者中，晚期复发是局部性的，这些转移灶治疗后的生存期往往较长，这强调了对所有皮肤黑色素瘤患者进行长期随访的重要性。
