Moustakis Yiannis, Wey Hao-Wei, Nützel Tobias, Oschlies Andreas, Pongratz Julia
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich, Munich, Germany.
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2025 May 21;16(1):4709. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59982-x.
Modelled pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement goals to mitigate warming typically include the large-scale application of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), which can include both land- and marine-based CDR methods. However, the Earth system responses and feedbacks to scaling up and/or combining different CDR methods remain understudied. Here, these are assessed by employing two Earth System Models, with a multifactorial setup of 42 emission-driven simulations covering the whole spectrum of Afforestation/Reforestation (0-927 Mha) and of Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (0-18 Pmol) over the 21 century. We show that global carbon flux responses scale linearly when different CDR methods are scaled up and/or combined, which suggests that the efficiency of CDR is insensitive to both the amount of CDR and the CDR portfolio composition. Therefore, combining CDR methods, which seems beneficial for diversifying risks and remaining below sustainability thresholds, does not compromise the efficiency of individual applications.
与《巴黎协定》缓解气候变暖目标一致的模拟路径通常包括大规模应用二氧化碳去除(CDR),这可以包括基于陆地和海洋的CDR方法。然而,地球系统对扩大规模和/或组合不同CDR方法的响应和反馈仍未得到充分研究。在此,通过使用两个地球系统模型进行评估,这些模型采用多因素设置,进行了42次排放驱动模拟,涵盖了21世纪造林/再造林(0 - 927百万公顷)和海洋碱度增强(0 - 18皮摩尔)的全范围。我们表明,当扩大规模和/或组合不同的CDR方法时,全球碳通量响应呈线性变化,这表明CDR的效率对CDR的数量和CDR组合构成均不敏感。因此,组合CDR方法似乎有利于分散风险并保持在可持续性阈值以下,同时不会损害单个应用的效率。