The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
Department of Biology, James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA 22807.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Oct 31;114(44):11645-11650. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1710465114. Epub 2017 Oct 16.
Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO equivalent (PgCOe) y (95% CI 20.3-37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCOe y) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO pollution is ≥100 USD MgCOe by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.
为了实现《巴黎协定》将升温控制在 2°C 以下的目标,需要更好地管理土地;然而,对于可用的具体土地管理选项及其缓解潜力仍然存在混淆。为了解决这个问题,我们确定并量化了“自然气候解决方案”(NCS):20 种保护、恢复和改善土地管理的行动,这些行动可以增加全球森林、湿地、草原和农田的碳储存量和/或避免温室气体排放。我们发现,在受粮食安全、纤维安全和生物多样性保护约束的情况下,NCS 的最大潜力为 23.8 百万吨二氧化碳当量(PgCOe)y(95%置信区间 20.3-37.4)。这比之前的估计高出≥30%,之前的估计没有包括这里考虑的所有选项和保障措施。假设到 2030 年 CO 污染的社会成本≥100 美元 MgCOe,那么这一最大潜力的一半(11.3 PgCOe y)代表具有成本效益的气候缓解,假设到 2030 年,66%以上的可能性将升温控制在 2°C 以下。到 2030 年,要实现具有成本效益的 CO 减排所需的超过 66%的减排目标,NCS 可以提供 37%的减排。这部分具有成本效益的 NCS 减排中有三分之一可以在 10 美元 MgCOe 或以下实现。如果能有效实施,大多数 NCS 行动还可以提供水过滤、洪水缓冲、土壤健康、生物多样性栖息地和增强的气候弹性。仍需要做更多工作来更好地约束 NCS 缓解估计的不确定性。尽管如此,这里报告的现有知识为立即采取全球行动提供了坚实的基础,以改善生态系统管理,作为应对气候变化的主要解决方案。