Khademi Kolah Loui Mohammad Hashem, Jambarsang Sara, Namayandeh Seyedeh Mahideh, Tabatabaei Seyyed Mohammad, Hozhabrnia Abdollah, Sefidkar Reyhane
Center for Healthcare Data Modeling, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of public health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.
Clinical Research Development Center, The Persian Gulf Martyrs Hospital, Bushehr University of Medical Sciences, Bushehr, Iran.
ARYA Atheroscler. 2025;21(1):36-43. doi: 10.48305/arya.2025.42469.2938.
This study was conducted to estimate the power of anthropometric markers to predict 10-year CVD across different age groups in the Yazd Healthy Heart cohort.
A total of 1,623 individuals aged 20 to 74, who were free of CVD, participated in the study. A conditional time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the predictive power of anthropometric indices, including the Abdominal Volume Index (AVI), Body Adiposity Index (BAI), and Waist-to-Height Ratio (WHtR), adjusted for age and sex.
Of the 1,623 participants, 818 were males (50.40%) and 805 were females (49.60%). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) for the BAI ranged from 0.50 to 0.70 for males aged 40 to 70 years. In females, the BAI biomarker demonstrated considerable to excellent predictive power (AUC > 0.8) for individuals aged 20 to approximately 33 years. For males, AVI and WHtR showed fair to considerable predictive power in participants aged 20 to 30 years. In the age group of 30 to approximately 68 years, the predictive power varied from poor to ineffective, except for individuals close to 50 years old. In females, the predictive power of the AVI and WHtR biomarkers ranged from fair to considerable for those aged 20 to around 33 years.
This study found that AVI and WHtR can fairly predict 10-year CVD risk in young individuals of both sexes, while the BAI was specifically applicable for predicting risk in young women. These markers are valuable and affordable tools for youth CVD screening.
本研究旨在评估人体测量指标在亚兹德健康心脏队列中不同年龄组预测10年心血管疾病（CVD）的能力。
共有1623名年龄在20至74岁且无CVD的个体参与了本研究。使用条件性时间依赖型受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线来评估人体测量指数的预测能力，这些指数包括腹围指数（AVI）、体脂指数（BAI）和腰高比（WHtR），并对年龄和性别进行了校正。
在1623名参与者中，男性818名（50.40%），女性805名（49.60%）。40至70岁男性的BAI曲线下面积（AUC）范围为0.50至0.70。在女性中，BAI生物标志物对20至约33岁的个体显示出相当高至优异的预测能力（AUC>0.8）。对于男性，AVI和WHtR在20至30岁的参与者中显示出中等至相当高的预测能力。在30至约68岁的年龄组中，除了接近50岁的个体外，预测能力从差到无效不等。在女性中，AVI和WHtR生物标志物对20至约33岁的个体预测能力范围为中等至相当高。
本研究发现，AVI和WHtR可以较好地预测两性年轻个体的10年CVD风险，而BAI特别适用于预测年轻女性的风险。这些标志物是用于青年CVD筛查的有价值且经济实惠的工具。
