Chen Zi-Han, Wu Hao-Tian, Yao Zhou, Liu Qian, Zhang Hong-Mei, Li Xiao-Chen, Yao Li-Qing, Yang Xue
Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Wuhua District, Kunming, 650000, Yunnan, China.
Kunming Medical University Rehabilitation College, Chenggong District, Kunming, 650500, Yunnan, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 22;15(1):17773. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-98861-9.
No predictive models have been reported for tracheostomy extubation success in plateau region rehabilitation departments. Hence, the primary objective of this retrospective study was to evaluate the predictive capabilities of different models for extubation outcomes in CNS injury patients in plateau rehabilitation departments, as well as investigate the influence of clinical features on these outcomes. Data were collected from 501 adult tracheostomy patients in the Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, including 196 successful extubations. Logistic regression was employed to identify the significant features linked to extubation outcomes from a pool of 31 variables. A total of eight independent models and a weighted posterior voting ensemble model were developed. Hyperparameter optimization and tenfold cross-validation were used to assist in choosing model parameters. Random forest (ACC = 84.15, AUC = 0.85), extra trees (83.17%, 0.87), K-NN (82.18%, 0.85), and gradient boosting (81.19%, 0.85) performed well. An ensemble model (85.15%, 0.87) combining random forest, Gaussian naive Bayes, and K-NN via the WPV method was developed. Dysphagia and low GCS scores have been linked to increased difficulty in extubation, as indicated by SHAP values and previous studies. Moreover, there could be a relationship between chronic inflammation and albumin levels in patients, which may collectively impact extubation success. This study evaluated the effectiveness of conventional models for predicting extubation outcomes and analyzed the factors influencing extubation results at high altitudes, laying the groundwork for clinical use and future research. Nevertheless, further research will see advantages in using multicentric approaches and broadening clinical indicators.
目前尚无关于高原地区康复科气管切开拔管成功率的预测模型报道。因此,这项回顾性研究的主要目的是评估不同模型对高原康复科中枢神经系统损伤患者拔管结局的预测能力,并调查临床特征对这些结局的影响。数据收集自康复医学科的501例成年气管切开患者,其中196例成功拔管。采用逻辑回归从31个变量中识别与拔管结局相关的显著特征。共开发了8个独立模型和1个加权后验投票集成模型。使用超参数优化和十折交叉验证来辅助选择模型参数。随机森林(ACC = 84.15,AUC = 0.85)、极端随机树(83.17%,0.87)、K近邻(82.18%,0.85)和梯度提升(81.19%,0.85)表现良好。通过WPV方法开发了一个结合随机森林、高斯朴素贝叶斯和K近邻的集成模型(85.15%,0.87)。SHAP值和先前研究表明,吞咽困难和低格拉斯哥昏迷量表评分与拔管难度增加有关。此外,患者的慢性炎症与白蛋白水平之间可能存在关联,这可能共同影响拔管成功率。本研究评估了传统模型预测拔管结局的有效性,并分析了高原地区影响拔管结果的因素,为临床应用和未来研究奠定了基础。然而,进一步的研究将看到采用多中心方法和拓宽临床指标的优势。