Zeng Weiqiang, Yang Wenlong, Yu Ge, Shen Pan, Zheng Zhijun, Yang Fengyun
Jiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, 330006, China.
Department of Orthopaedics, The Affiliated Hospital of Jiangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, 330006, China.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2025 May 24;26(1):512. doi: 10.1186/s12891-025-08760-3.
Malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage (MNBAC) represents one of the most prevalent malignant tumours among adolescents. Assessing its disease burden trends is critical for formulating prevention strategies. This study aims to evaluate the temporal trends of MNBAC burden in China, project future trajectories over the next 15 years, and compare these patterns with global benchmarks.
Data on incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database 2021. Joinpoint regression analysed temporal trends, while decomposition analysis was used to investigate the impact of aging, population growth, and epidemiological factors on the deaths and DALYs rates of MNBAC. Additionally, we conducted BPAC model to project future trends to 2036. Spearman correlation assessed associations between the burden of MNBAC and the socio-demographic Index (SDI).
In 2021, China's age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardised DALYs rate (ASDR) for MNBAC were 1.42, 9.16, 0.93, and 29.52 per 100,000 population, respectively. Compared to 1990, these metrics increased by 118.46%, 125.62%, 60.34%, and 46.43%. Age-specific analyses revealed a bimodal burden pattern globally, peaking in adolescent and elderly populations. Joinpoint regression identified fluctuating trends in China (initial declining, subsequent rise, and then in decline), contrasting with global pattern. Decomposition analysis indicated that the increasing MNBAC burden in China was primarily driven by population aging and epidemiological changes, whereas globally, population growth played a more significant role. Projections indicated modest declines in MNBAC burden for China and globally by 2036. Spearman correlation analysis showed that the ASIR and ASPR of MNBAC in China and globally were significantly positively correlated with SDI (P < 0.05), and the ASMR and ASDR of MNBAC were also positively correlated with SDI, but not significantly.
This analysis underscores the substantial burden of MNBAC in China, surpassing global trends. While projections suggest gradual declines, the persistent high disability burden in youth and elderly populations necessitates strengthened screening protocols and prevention strategies. These findings provide critical epidemiological evidence for optimizing MNBAC management policies.
骨与关节软骨恶性肿瘤（MNBAC）是青少年中最常见的恶性肿瘤之一。评估其疾病负担趋势对于制定预防策略至关重要。本研究旨在评估中国MNBAC负担的时间趋势，预测未来15年的发展轨迹，并将这些模式与全球基准进行比较。
从《2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）》数据库中提取发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）数据。采用Joinpoint回归分析时间趋势，同时进行分解分析以研究老龄化、人口增长和流行病学因素对MNBAC死亡率和DALY率的影响。此外，我们使用BPAC模型预测到2036年的未来趋势。Spearman相关性分析评估MNBAC负担与社会人口指数（SDI）之间的关联。
2021年，中国MNBAC的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化DALY率（ASDR）分别为每10万人1.42、9.16、0.93和29.52。与1990年相比，这些指标分别增长了118.46%、125.62%、60.34%和46.43%。特定年龄分析显示全球存在双峰负担模式，在青少年和老年人群中达到峰值。Joinpoint回归确定了中国的波动趋势（最初下降，随后上升，然后下降），与全球模式形成对比。分解分析表明，中国MNBAC负担的增加主要由人口老龄化和流行病学变化驱动，而在全球范围内，人口增长发挥了更重要的作用。预测表明，到2036年中国和全球的MNBAC负担将略有下降。Spearman相关性分析表明，中国和全球MNBAC的ASIR和ASPR与SDI显著正相关（P<0.05），MNBAC的ASMR和ASDR也与SDI正相关，但不显著。
该分析强调了中国MNBAC的沉重负担，超过了全球趋势。虽然预测表明负担将逐渐下降，但青年和老年人群持续的高残疾负担需要加强筛查方案和预防策略。这些发现为优化MNBAC管理政策提供了关键的流行病学证据。
