Li Lingyi, Luo Man
Outpatient Department Office, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Department of Oncology, Wuhan No.1 Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Front Oncol. 2025 May 8;15:1503611. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1503611. eCollection 2025.
This study aims to examine association between vitamin D with melanoma and develop an explainable machine learning model.
For this study, relevant data were downloaded from the CDC's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) program, for the three survey cycles 2011-2012, 2013-2014 and 2015-2016. Self-reported melanoma data, serum vitamin D levels, and other covariates were downloaded and analyzed. Analysis of variance in this study was performed using t-tests and chi-square tests, modelling was performed using logistic regression based on NHANES weights, and other risk factors were analyzed using forest plots. Ten machine learning models were compared and XGboost was selected for the melanoma prediction.
In this study, logistic regression analysis revealed a protective effect of higher vitamin D levels in melanoma, the ORs were much less than 1 for Q2 (OR=0.97, 95% CI (0.44, 0.98)), Q3 (OR=0.71, 95% CI (0.65, 0.92)), and Q4 (OR=0.32, 95% CI (0.55, 0.81)). Meanwhile, forest plot analysis showed that vitamin D, the number of sunburns in the past year, advanced age, Caucasian, education some college, single and unmarried, smoking, diabetes and hypertension, were all statistically significant. The OR was higher in men than in women, with Q4 values of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.18-0.51) for men and 0.29 (95% CI: 0.15-0.45) for women. OR was higher in the senior patients than in the non-senior group, with Q4 (OR=0.53, 95% CI (0.23, 0.73)). An explainable XGBoost model had AUC 0.906, and in the model vitamin D had main contribution to the model.
In conclusion, this study concluded that vitamin D decreases melanoma risk based on a larger sample and multi-covariate analysis. Female and young people received high protection from vitamin D in melanoma. XGBoost can accurately prediction the possibility of melanoma based on vitamin D.
本研究旨在探讨维生素D与黑色素瘤之间的关联，并开发一个可解释的机器学习模型。
在本研究中，从美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）的国家健康与营养检查调查（NHANES）项目中下载了2011 - 2012年、2013 - 2014年和2015 - 2016年这三个调查周期的相关数据。下载并分析了自我报告的黑色素瘤数据、血清维生素D水平及其他协变量。本研究使用t检验和卡方检验进行方差分析，基于NHANES权重使用逻辑回归进行建模，并使用森林图分析其他风险因素。比较了10种机器学习模型，并选择XGBoost进行黑色素瘤预测。
在本研究中，逻辑回归分析显示较高的维生素D水平对黑色素瘤有保护作用，对于第二四分位数（OR = 0.97，95%CI（0.44，0.98））、第三四分位数（OR = 0.71，95%CI（0.65，0.92））和第四四分位数（OR = 0.32，95%CI（0.55，0.81）），OR值远小于1。同时，森林图分析表明维生素D、过去一年晒伤次数、高龄、白种人、上过一些大学、单身和未婚、吸烟、糖尿病和高血压均具有统计学意义。男性的OR值高于女性，男性第四四分位数的OR值为0.31（95%CI：0.18 - 0.51），女性为0.29（95%CI：0.15 - 0.45）。老年患者的OR值高于非老年组，第四四分位数（OR = 0.53，95%CI（0.23，0.73））。一个可解释的XGBoost模型的AUC为0.906，在该模型中维生素D对模型有主要贡献。
总之，本研究基于更大样本和多协变量分析得出维生素D可降低黑色素瘤风险的结论。女性和年轻人在黑色素瘤方面从维生素D中获得了高度保护。XGBoost可以基于维生素D准确预测黑色素瘤的可能性。
