Chabuka Lucious, Choga Wonderful T, Mavian Carla N, Moir Monika, Morgenstern Christian, Tegaly Houriiyah, Sharma Abhinav, Wilkinson Eduan, Naidoo Yeshnee, Inward Rhys, Bhatt Samir, William Wint G R, Khan Kamran, Bogoch Isaac I, Kraemer Moritz U G, Lourenço José, Baxter Cheryl, Tagliamonte Massimiliano, Salemi Marco, Lessells Richard J, Mitambo Collins, Chitatanga Ronald, Bitilinyu-Bango Joseph, Chiwaula Mabvuto, Chavula Yollamu, Bukhu Mphatso, Manda Happy, Chitenje Moses, Malolo Innocent, Mwanyongo Alex, Mvula Bernard, Nyenje Mirrium, de Oliveira Tulio, Kagoli Mathew
Emerg Infect Dis. 2025 Jun;31(6):1090-1099. doi: 10.3201/eid3106.240930.
In the aftermath of 2 extreme weather events in 2022, Malawi experienced a severe cholera outbreak; 59,325 cases and 1,774 deaths were reported by March 31, 2024. We generated 49 Vibrio cholerae full genomes from isolates collected during December 2022-March 2023. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods confirmed that the Malawi outbreak strains originated from Pakistan's 2022 cholera outbreak. That finding aligns with substantial travel between the 2 countries. The estimated most recent ancestor of this lineage was from June-August 2022, coinciding with Pakistan's floods and cholera surge. Our analysis indicates that major floods in Malawi contributed to the outbreak; reproduction numbers peaked in late December 2022. We conclude that extreme weather events and humanitarian crises in Malawi created conditions conducive to the spread of cholera, and population displacement likely contributed to transmission to susceptible populations in areas relatively unaffected by cholera for more than a decade.
在2022年发生的两次极端天气事件之后，马拉维经历了严重的霍乱疫情；截至2024年3月31日，报告了59325例病例和1774例死亡。我们从2022年12月至2023年3月期间收集的分离株中获得了49个霍乱弧菌全基因组。系统发育和系统地理学方法证实，马拉维疫情菌株起源于巴基斯坦2022年的霍乱疫情。这一发现与两国之间大量的人员往来相符。该谱系的估计最近共同祖先来自2022年6月至8月，与巴基斯坦的洪水和霍乱激增时间一致。我们的分析表明，马拉维的重大洪水导致了疫情爆发；繁殖数在2022年12月底达到峰值。我们得出结论，马拉维的极端天气事件和人道主义危机创造了有利于霍乱传播的条件，人口流离失所可能导致霍乱传播到十多年来相对未受霍乱影响地区的易感人群。
