Microtubules are dynamic cytoskeletal polymers that add and lose tubulin dimers at their ends. Microtubule growth, shortening, and transitions between them are linked to GTP hydrolysis. Recent evidence suggests that flexible tubulin protofilaments at microtubule ends adopt a variety of shapes, complicating structural analysis using conventional techniques. Therefore, the link between GTP hydrolysis, protofilament structure and microtubule polymerization state is poorly understood. Here, we investigate the conformational dynamics of microtubule ends using coarse-grained modeling supported by atomistic simulations and cryoelectron tomography. We show that individual bent protofilaments organize in clusters, transient precursors to the straight microtubule lattice, with GTP-bound ends showing elevated and more persistent cluster formation. Differences in the mechanical properties of GTP- and GDP-protofilaments result in differences in intracluster tension, determining both clustering propensity and protofilament length. We propose that conformational selection at microtubule ends favors long-lived clusters of short GTP-protofilaments that are more prone to forming a straight microtubule lattice and accommodating new tubulin dimers. Conversely, microtubule ends trapped in states with unevenly long and stiff GDP-protofilaments are more prone to shortening. We conclude that protofilament clustering is the key phenomenon that links the hydrolysis state of single tubulins to the polymerization state of the entire microtubule.