Rodenberg Clare A, Walter Jonathan A, Haynes Kyle J
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA.
Center for Watershed Sciences, University of California, Davis, California, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2025 Jun;28(6):e70140. doi: 10.1111/ele.70140.
Because population growth is a key component of range expansion, spatial synchrony in population growth along a species' range edge may lead to spatial synchrony in range expansion. However, demographic stochasticity in low-density range-edge populations and stochastic long-distance dispersal may disrupt the synchronisation of range expansion. Here, we investigate whether rates of spread by an invasive species, the spongy moth and exhibit spatial synchrony. We also evaluate if climatic oscillations at multi-annual timescales arising from teleconnections synchronise spread at similar timescales. We applied extensions of wavelet analysis to spatiotemporal data on climate variables and range-edge abundances during 1990-2020. Synchrony in spread occurred throughout the entire study area, but only in the northernmost and southernmost ecoregions was synchrony in spread explained by multi-annual climate oscillations linked to teleconnection patterns. We demonstrate spatial synchrony in invasive spread and find an opportunity to predict the timing of pulses of invasive spread at regional scales.
由于种群增长是分布范围扩张的关键组成部分，沿着物种分布范围边缘的种群增长的空间同步性可能导致分布范围扩张的空间同步性。然而，低密度分布范围边缘种群中的人口统计学随机性和随机长距离扩散可能会扰乱分布范围扩张的同步性。在这里，我们研究入侵物种舞毒蛾的扩散速度是否呈现空间同步性。我们还评估了由遥相关引起的多年时间尺度上的气候振荡是否会在相似时间尺度上使扩散同步。我们将小波分析扩展应用于1990 - 2020年期间气候变量和分布范围边缘丰度的时空数据。在整个研究区域都出现了扩散的同步性，但只有在最北部和最南部的生态区域，扩散的同步性是由与遥相关模式相关的多年气候振荡所解释的。我们证明了入侵扩散中的空间同步性，并找到了在区域尺度上预测入侵扩散脉冲时间的机会。
