State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, California, Davis, 95616, USA.
Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2022 Dec;97(6):2174-2194. doi: 10.1111/brv.12888. Epub 2022 Aug 9.
Climate is a major extrinsic factor affecting the population dynamics of many organisms. The Broad-Scale Climate Hypothesis (BSCH) was proposed by Elton to explain the large-scale synchronous population cycles of animals, but the extent of support and whether it differs among taxa and geographical regions is unclear. We reviewed publications examining the relationship between the population dynamics of multiple taxa worldwide and the two most commonly used broad-scale climate indices, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our review and synthesis (based on 561 species from 221 papers) reveals that population changes of mammals, birds and insects are strongly affected by major oceanic shifts or irregular oceanic changes, particularly in ENSO- and NAO-influenced regions (Pacific and Atlantic, respectively), providing clear evidence supporting Elton's BSCH. Mammal and insect populations tended to increase during positive ENSO phases. Bird populations tended to increase in positive NAO phases. Some species showed dual associations with both positive and negative phases of the same climate index (ENSO or NAO). These findings indicate that some taxa or regions are more or less vulnerable to climate fluctuations and that some geographical areas show multiple weather effects related to ENSO or NAO phases. Beyond confirming that animal populations are influenced by broad-scale climate variation, we document extensive patterns of variation among taxa and observe that the direct biotic and abiotic mechanisms for these broad-scale climate factors affecting animal populations are very poorly understood. A practical implication of our research is that changes in ENSO or NAO can be used as early signals for pest management and wildlife conservation. We advocate integrative studies at both broad and local scales to unravel the omnipresent effects of climate on animal populations to help address the challenge of conserving biodiversity in this era of accelerated climate change.
气候是影响许多生物种群动态的主要外在因素。Elton 提出的广泛气候假说（BSCH）旨在解释动物的大规模同步种群周期，但该假说得到的支持程度以及在分类群和地理区域之间是否存在差异尚不清楚。我们回顾了研究全球多种类群的种群动态与两种最常用的广泛气候指数（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和北大西洋涛动（NAO））之间关系的文献。我们的综述和综合分析（基于 221 篇论文中的 561 个物种）表明，哺乳动物、鸟类和昆虫的种群变化受到主要海洋变化或不规则海洋变化的强烈影响，特别是在受 ENSO 和 NAO 影响的地区（太平洋和大西洋），这为支持 Elton 的 BSCH 提供了明确的证据。哺乳动物和昆虫种群在 ENSO 正相位期间趋于增加。鸟类种群在正 NAO 相位期间趋于增加。一些物种与同一气候指数（ENSO 或 NAO）的正相和负相都有双重关联。这些发现表明，一些分类群或地区对气候波动的脆弱性或多或少，一些地理区域表现出与 ENSO 或 NAO 相位相关的多种天气效应。除了证实动物种群受到广泛气候变化的影响外，我们还记录了不同分类群之间广泛的变化模式，并观察到这些广泛气候因素影响动物种群的直接生物和非生物机制知之甚少。我们研究的一个实际意义是，ENSO 或 NAO 的变化可以用作害虫管理和野生动物保护的早期信号。我们提倡在广泛和局部尺度上进行综合研究，以揭示气候对动物种群的普遍影响，以帮助应对在这个加速气候变化的时代保护生物多样性的挑战。
