Holford T R
J Chronic Dis. 1985;38(10):831-40. doi: 10.1016/0021-9681(85)90106-7.
Age-period-cohort analysis has generated considerable interest in epidemiology, but the model has fundamental problems which have been discussed by Kupper et al. While one can agree that the age-period-cohort model should be used with caution, it should also be noted that some useful inferences can be made with the model. The problems raised by Kupper et al. are discussed in terms of estimable functions of the parameters, which are not affected by arbitrary constraints on the parameters. The use of these methods are illustrated and specific examples presented where age-period-cohort models can be used effectively.
年龄-时期-队列分析在流行病学领域引起了广泛关注,但该模型存在一些基本问题,库珀等人对此进行了讨论。虽然人们可以认同年龄-时期-队列模型的使用应谨慎,但也应注意到该模型能够得出一些有用的推论。库珀等人提出的问题将从参数的可估计函数角度进行讨论,这些函数不受参数的任意约束影响。文中将说明这些方法的应用,并给出年龄-时期-队列模型能够有效使用的具体示例。