Department of Epidemiology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer Hospital, Fuzhou 350014, China.
Department of Medical Oncology, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, Fujian Cancer Hospital, Fuzhou 350014, China.
Curr Oncol. 2022 Oct 6;29(10):7470-7481. doi: 10.3390/curroncol29100588.
The aim of this study was to investigate the upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence trend in China from 1990 to 2019 with Joinpoint software and to evaluate the age effect, cohort effect, and period effect using the age-period-cohort model, with the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. The crude incidence rate (CR) of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China increased from 41.48/100,000 in 1990 to 62.64/100,000 in 2019, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was 1.42 ( < 0.05). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 50.77/100,000 to 37.42/100,000, and the AAPC was -1.12 ( < 0.05). The net drift was -0.83 < 0.05), and the local drifts in the 35-79 age groups of males and all age groups of females were less than 0 < 0.05). The age effect showed that the upper gastrointestinal cancer onset risk gradually increased with age, the period effect was fundamentally manifested as a downward trend in onset risk after 2000, and the cohort effect indicated the decreased onset risk of the overall birth cohort after 1926. The ASIR of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 showed a downward trend, and the onset risk indicated the age, period, and cohort effects.
本研究旨在利用 Joinpoint 软件调查 1990 年至 2019 年中国上消化道癌症的发病率趋势，并使用年龄-时期-队列模型评估年龄效应、队列效应和时期效应，数据来自全球疾病、伤害和危险因素研究。中国上消化道癌症的粗发病率（CR）从 1990 年的 41.48/100,000 上升到 2019 年的 62.64/100,000，平均年变化百分比（AAPC）为 1.42（<0.05）。年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从 50.77/100,000 下降到 37.42/100,000，AAPC 为-1.12（<0.05）。净漂移为-0.83 （<0.05），男性 35-79 岁年龄组和所有女性年龄组的局部漂移均小于 0 （<0.05）。年龄效应表明，上消化道癌症的发病风险随年龄逐渐增加，时期效应主要表现为 2000 年后发病风险呈下降趋势，队列效应表明 1926 年后所有出生队列的发病风险降低。1990 年至 2019 年中国上消化道癌症的 ASIR 呈下降趋势，发病风险显示出年龄、时期和队列效应。
