McAndrew Fenella, Abeysuriya Romesh, Scott Nick
Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC.
Monash University, Melbourne, VIC.
Med J Aust. 2025 Jun 16;222(11):558-566. doi: 10.5694/mja2.52677. Epub 2025 Jun 1.
To assess the impact of different coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination strategies on infections and hospitalisations in the context of non-seasonal epidemic waves.
Dynamic compartmental model-based analysis.
Victoria (Australia).
Alternative COVID-19 vaccination strategies: baseline (low population coverage - 18-64 years, 7%; 65 years or older, 44% - vaccinations distributed evenly across the year); high coverage for all age groups, with vaccinations spread across year; increased coverage for people aged 65 years or older; annual vaccination campaigns that achieve coverage equivalent to that of influenza vaccinations (18-64 years, 25%; 65 years or older, 59%), commencing in March (same time as influenza vaccination campaign), August, or December; no further COVID-19 vaccinations for people under 65 years of age; no further COVID-19 vaccinations for anyone. Vaccination scenarios used different assumptions about COVID-19 epidemic wave periodicity, and peak infections magnitude and month.
Mean incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and COVID-19-related hospitalisations over a ten-year projection period.
The low baseline population level of recent COVID-19 vaccination means that any increase in coverage could reduce infection and hospitalisation incidence. Increasing COVID-19 vaccination coverage to match that of influenza vaccination with an annual vaccination campaign reduced the mean incidence of infections by 1-13% and that of hospitalisations by 3-14%, depending on the timing of vaccination campaigns with respect to the epidemic infections peak and assumptions about epidemic wave characteristics. Increasing coverage for people aged 65 years or older reduced hospitalisation incidence by 9-26%, but required twice as many vaccine doses as the annual campaign strategies.
Annual COVID-19 vaccination campaigns at the same time as those for influenza vaccination could reduce the number of COVID-19-related hospitalisations, with lower logistical requirements than alternative approaches.
评估在非季节性疫情浪潮背景下，不同的2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫苗接种策略对感染和住院情况的影响。
基于动态 compartmental 模型的分析。
维多利亚州（澳大利亚）。
替代性COVID-19疫苗接种策略：基线（低人群覆盖率——18至64岁，7%；65岁及以上，44%——全年均匀分配疫苗接种）；所有年龄组高覆盖率，疫苗接种全年分散进行；65岁及以上人群覆盖率增加；年度疫苗接种活动，实现与流感疫苗接种相同的覆盖率（18至64岁，25%；65岁及以上，59%），分别于3月（与流感疫苗接种活动同时）、8月或12月开始；65岁以下人群不再接种COVID-19疫苗；任何人都不再接种COVID-19疫苗。疫苗接种方案对COVID-19疫情浪潮的周期性、感染峰值大小和月份采用了不同假设。
在十年预测期内严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）感染的平均发病率以及与COVID-19相关的住院情况。
近期COVID-19疫苗接种的低基线人群水平意味着覆盖率的任何提高都可以降低感染和住院发病率。通过年度疫苗接种活动将COVID-19疫苗接种覆盖率提高到与流感疫苗接种相同的水平，可使感染的平均发病率降低1%至13%，住院平均发病率降低3%至14%，这取决于疫苗接种活动相对于疫情感染峰值的时间以及对疫情浪潮特征的假设。提高65岁及以上人群的覆盖率可使住院发病率降低9%至26%，但所需疫苗剂量是年度活动策略的两倍。
与流感疫苗接种同时进行年度COVID-19疫苗接种活动可减少与COVID-19相关的住院人数，且后勤需求低于其他替代方法。
