Staadegaard Lisa, Del Riccio Marco, Heemskerk Susanne, Dückers Michel, Fasce Rodrigo A, Bustos Patricia, Huang Q Sue, Cohen Cheryl, Moyes Jocelyn, Lee Vernon Jian Ming, Ang Li Wei, Monge Susana, Martínez-Pino Isabel, Bangert Mathieu, Kramer Rolf, Paget John, Stelma Foekje F, van Summeren Jojanneke, Caini Saverio
Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel), Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2025 Jun;19(6):e70123. doi: 10.1111/irv.70123.
We previously reviewed methods for estimating the timing of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics. This study examines the impact of various estimation methods on determining the start, end, duration, and capture rate of RSV epidemics.
We applied eight estimation methods to RSV surveillance data from the Global Epidemiology of RSV (GERi) study, covering Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, and the United States: 3% and 10% positivity rate, moving epidemic method (MEM), mean positivity, 1.2% total detections, mean and 60% mean number, and 75% average annual percentage (AAP). We compared the median start, end, duration, and capture rate of RSV epidemics obtained from these methods.
Within countries, the median duration of RSV epidemics varied by over 10 weeks, and the median capture rates ranged from > 95 to < 60%, depending on the estimation method. Generally, the 3% positivity rate method identified the longest RSV epidemics (earliest median start and latest end, and highest capture rate). The 10% positivity rate, MEM, and 75% AAP methods indicated the shortest RSV epidemics with the lowest capture rate. The remaining four methods produced intermediate results.
These findings underscore the importance of selecting estimation methods suited to the surveillance system and the intended use, whether for outbreak alert, planning, or targeted interventions.
我们之前回顾了估计呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）流行时间的方法。本研究考察了各种估计方法对确定RSV流行的起始、结束、持续时间和捕获率的影响。
我们将八种估计方法应用于来自呼吸道合胞病毒全球流行病学（GERi）研究的RSV监测数据，该研究覆盖智利、新西兰、新加坡、南非、西班牙和美国：3%和10%阳性率法、移动流行法（MEM）、平均阳性率、1.2%总检测率、平均及平均数量的60%，以及75%年均百分比（AAP）。我们比较了通过这些方法获得的RSV流行的中位数起始时间、结束时间、持续时间和捕获率。
在各个国家内，RSV流行的中位数持续时间相差超过10周，且中位数捕获率根据估计方法的不同在>95%至<60%之间。一般来说，3%阳性率法确定的RSV流行时间最长（中位数起始时间最早且结束时间最晚，捕获率最高）。10%阳性率法、MEM法和75% AAP法表明RSV流行时间最短且捕获率最低。其余四种方法得出的结果居中。
这些发现强调了选择适合监测系统和预期用途（无论是用于爆发预警、规划还是针对性干预）的估计方法的重要性。
