National Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
National Laboratory of Health, Environment and Food, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2021 Jan;15(1):56-63. doi: 10.1111/irv.12779. Epub 2020 Jul 12.
In Slovenia, the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) surveillance is based on national laboratory data. The weeks with more than 10% of samples tested positive compose RSV epidemic season. The use of real-time multiplex PCR, which identifies other respiratory pathogens in parallel with RSV, caused more testing but the percentage of RSV positives lowered. The 10% threshold was reached with delay, which raised concern about its suitability for defining RSV seasonality.
To describe the seasonality of RSV, the onset, offset and duration of the RSV epidemic season across 10 years (from week 40, 2008/2009 to week 39, 2017/2018), four calculative methods were deployed including moving epidemic method, MEM, and epidemiological parameters were compared.
In 10 years, 10 969 (12%) out of 90 264 samples tested positive for RSV. The number of tested samples increased remarkably from the first to last season with a drop in the percentage of positive samples from 23% to 10%. The onset of RSV epidemic varied considerably regardless of the calculative method used (from 10 to 13 weeks). The unevenness in the RSV epidemic season end was also observed. The average duration of RSV epidemic season was the shortest when moving epidemic method has been used (15.7 weeks) and longest with ≥3% method (22.9 weeks).
The ≥3% calculative method could be used as an early warning of the RSV season. However, ≥7% calculative method was found to be reliable enough to define the epidemiological parameters of an ongoing season and to support public health response. The potential of the moving epidemic method should be further explored.
在斯洛文尼亚，呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）监测基于国家实验室数据。每周检测到超过 10%的样本呈阳性的时期构成 RSV 流行季。使用实时多重 PCR 技术可以同时鉴定其他呼吸道病原体，这导致了更多的检测，但 RSV 阳性率降低了。10%的阈值到达时间较晚，这引起了对其定义 RSV 季节性的适用性的关注。
为了描述 RSV 的季节性，我们使用了四种计算方法，包括移动流行方法（MEM），描述了 10 年来（从 2008/2009 年第 40 周到 2017/2018 年第 39 周） RSV 流行季的开始、结束和持续时间，并比较了流行病学参数。
在 10 年中，90264 个样本中有 10969 个（12%）检测出 RSV 阳性。检测样本数量从第一个流行季到最后一个流行季显著增加，阳性样本的百分比从 23%下降到 10%。无论使用哪种计算方法，RSV 流行季的开始时间都有很大差异（从第 10 周到第 13 周）。也观察到 RSV 流行季结束的不均匀性。当使用移动流行方法时，RSV 流行季的平均持续时间最短（15.7 周），而当使用≥3%方法时最长（22.9 周）。
≥3%的计算方法可作为 RSV 季节的早期预警。然而，≥7%的计算方法被发现足以可靠地定义正在进行的季节的流行病学参数，并支持公共卫生应对措施。移动流行方法的潜力应进一步探索。
