Xue Peipei, Minasny Budiman, Román Dobarco Mercedes, Wadoux Alexandre M J-C, Padarian Campusano Jose, Bissett Andrew, de Caritat Patrice, McBratney Alex
The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
NEIKER-Basque Institute for Agricultural Research and Development, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Derio, Basque Country, Spain.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Jun;31(6):e70268. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70268.
Soil microorganisms are crucial to ecosystem health, and their composition and distribution are shaped by a range of environmental factors. However, the effects of accelerating climate change on soil microbiomes remain under-explored. This study examines the continental-scale factors controlling soil microbiomes and evaluates their responses to climate change. We applied machine learning algorithms to analyze the distribution patterns of bacteria and fungi in 1300 Australian topsoil samples. Our results indicate that bacterial distributions align closely with the soil class map, highlighting the dominant impact of soil properties. In contrast, fungal distributions are more strongly associated with temperature gradients, emphasizing the critical role of climate. Climate projections for 2040 suggest a notable southward shift in both bacterial and fungal patterns, particularly around latitude 25° S. Moreover, our findings suggest that fungal biogeography is likely to undergo more pronounced changes, with approximately 24% of Australian topsoils expected to experience significant shifts in fungal community structure, compared to about 19% for bacteria, which appear more resistant. This study emphasizes the diverse vulnerabilities of soil microbial communities and stresses the need to account for microbial dynamics in future land use and management practices.
土壤微生物对生态系统健康至关重要，其组成和分布受一系列环境因素影响。然而，气候变化加速对土壤微生物群落的影响仍未得到充分研究。本研究探讨了控制土壤微生物群落的大陆尺度因素，并评估了它们对气候变化的响应。我们应用机器学习算法分析了1300个澳大利亚表层土壤样本中细菌和真菌的分布模式。我们的结果表明，细菌分布与土壤分类图密切相关，突出了土壤性质的主导影响。相比之下，真菌分布与温度梯度的关联更强，强调了气候的关键作用。2040年的气候预测表明，细菌和真菌模式将显著向南转移，特别是在南纬25°左右。此外，我们的研究结果表明，真菌生物地理学可能会发生更显著的变化，预计约24%的澳大利亚表层土壤真菌群落结构将发生显著变化，而细菌约为19%，细菌似乎更具抗性。本研究强调了土壤微生物群落的多种脆弱性，并强调在未来土地利用和管理实践中需要考虑微生物动态。
